Florida State vs Syracuse: Preview and Prediction
It's a battle of back-middle ACC teams in Syracuse and Florida State in Tallahassee Wednesday night.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 7:00 PM ET
TV: ESPNU
Spread: Syracuse -2
Total: 150
Syracuse Team Overview
Record: 14-10 (7-6)
KenPom Ranking: 83rd (55th Offense, 130th Defense)
Recent Games: 77-68 W at Boston College, 67-62 L vs Virginia, 85-70 L at Virginia Tech
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G Joseph Girard III (16.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.3 apg)
Fr. G Judah Mintz (15.4 ppg, 4.4 apg, 2.1 spg)
Sr. C Jesse Edwards (14.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 2.8 bpg)
Above .500 in ACC play this year, Syracuse has been solid in the league after an extremely rough non-conference performance. While they can probably wish away any hopes of making the NCAA tournament, this Syracuse team has a bright future in store with multiple promising freshmen.
Coach Jim Boeheim has made headlines recently with his comments regarding the NIL era of college basketball and accused fellow ACC opponents such as Pittsburgh, Miami (FL), and Wake Forest of “buying their teams”, which was met with quite a lot of backlash. Boeheim’s general attitude in post game press conferences has been concerning of late. When Benny Williams did not play in the Virginia game, he got upset at a student reporter for asking about it, even though it was announced that he would address it after the game. Finally, Boeheim announced that he hadn’t decided whether he was returning next year and that “he can do whatever he wants". Whether this off the court noise is affecting the team is unknown, but regardless, they are in position to finish in the top nine in the ACC to get a bye in the conference tournament.
As for the actual basketball being played, Syracuse is able to take care of the teams that they should beat, but is still yet to have a major win on its resume. Their only Quad 1 or 2 win is a home win against Virginia Tech, but they’ve gotten extremely close losing vs Virginia, vs North Carolina, at Miami, and vs Pittsburgh all by five points or less.
The major emergence recently in Syracuse’s rotation has been freshman F Maliq Brown, who rarely played in non-conference and now is averaging 36.7 minutes per game over Syracuse’s last three. Brown is not really a scorer, only scoring more than 12 points twice this season, but he is highly efficient (70.4 FG%) and is a ferocious offensive rebounder (2 ORPG in 20 MPG on the season). Another freshman who has been playing more often is Justin Taylor, a sharpshooter shooting 44.4% from three point range, giving the Orange much needed spacing, as they don’t have any shooters beside Joseph Girard III. Both players look to be cornerstones of the future of this Syracuse team.
Freshman Judah Mintz has the ball in his hands all the time for Syracuse, and is tremendous at setting up his teammates and drawing contact. He's taken the third most free throws in the ACC this season, and knocks them down at a 73.6% clip.
Finally, be on the lookout for how Jesse Edwards performs against a Florida State team with a lot of size and athleticism. Edwards is coming off a 27 point, seven rebound, four block performance against Boston College.
Florida State Team Overview
Record: 8-16 (6-7)
KenPom Ranking: 171st (128th Offense, 230th Defense)
Recent Games: 81-78 W at Louisville, 94-66 L at NC State, 82-81 L vs Clemson
Leading Scorers:
So. F Matthew Cleveland (14.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 0.7 bpg)
Jr. G Darin Green Jr. (14.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 40.7% 3P)
Jr. G Caleb Mills (12.9 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.5 spg)
In what is most likely Leonard Hamilton’s worst team in his past 15 years at Florida State, this squad is still hovering around .500 in ACC play (which might be a sign of how weak the league is). This Florida State team was picked No. 5 in the preseason ACC poll and has drastically fallen short of those expectations. Injuries have been a major factor, but even with that in mind this team has underwhelmed. Non-conference schedule losses to Stetson, Troy, and Siena bring down their metrics and those of the league along with it.
The big news around the Florida State program about a month ago was the debut of heralded Spanish freshman Baba Miller entering the lineup against Wake Forest. Coming into the year, Miller was thought to be a potential first round NBA draft pick, but we haven’t quite seen that level of play from him so far. Miller is only averaging 17.3 minutes per game for a team that isn’t very good and lacks quality play from its big men. From a box score perspective, the only thing Miller has done well is rebound (3.6 RPG), but EvanMiya rates him as FSU’s best player on a per minute basis in their performance rankings.
One bright spot for Florida State is how well Caleb Mills is playing lately, averaging 11.7 ppg, 4.7 apg, and 1.7 spg in his last three games. As is freshman Cam Corhen, who scored 16 points in both of his last two games.
Darin Green Jr. will be a key piece in this one as well. He's second in the ACC in three-pointers per game with 3.0, and he'll have plenty of opportunity to let it fly from deep against the zone.
The Seminoles have a massive team, as they don’t start anyone shorter than 6’5, which can hurt teams that rely on heavy guard lineups that are small. Their best win of the season was against Pittsburgh who started a guard heavy lineup with three players smaller than 6’5. Florida State was able to use their size to their advantage and make things tough for Pittsburgh’s guards.
Hamilton’s squad needs to have a good end of the season to get a bye in the ACC tournament, although they have a tough rest of the schedule, featuring two Quad 2 games and three Quad 1 games. Getting a win here against Syracuse would be massive for their momentum down the stretch.
Prediction:
Maybe this Syracuse team rallies around the outside noise about their longtime coach, but it’s more likely that it was a distraction. This seems like a game where the team might have a downer with all the drama going on, and it’s quite a long trip from New York to Tallahassee, which screams let down game for the ‘Cuse.
Additionally, Florida State has the length to bother Judah Mintz and Joe Girard, and even though they have struggled defensively, Syracuse is a team where you can key in on the three guys they rely on. Florida State has certainly been bad at home this year, but I see them limiting Jesse Edwards in the paint with the necessary size to match up with Edwards in Cameron Corhen, Baba Miller, and Naheem McLeod. The Noles certainly have enough athletes to throw at the Orange’s best players. Darin Green’s spacing should also help Florida State get a lot of good looks from behind the arc against the zone.
Overall, inspire a ton of confidence, but I feel more comfortable taking the home team in this one, and I like the matchups better from Florida State’s perspective. The Seminoles have been playing much better offensively lately, and with Green and Mills knocking down outside shots I see them squeaking out a iwn here at the Tuck.
The Pick: Florida State +2
Final Score Prediction: Florida State 73, Syracuse 71
Jack Smartt's 2022-23 ATS Record: 5-6
Jack is a contributing basketball writer at Deacons Daily