Houston at Virginia: ACC Pick of the Day
The No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers take on the No. 5 Houston Cougars in Charlottesville on Saturday afternoon.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 2 PM ET
TV: ESPN2
Spread: Houston -2.5
Total: 113
Houston Team Preview:
Record: 10-1
KenPom Ranking: 2nd (29th Off, 2nd Def)
Kelvin Sampson has built this Houston program into a powerhouse and this year’s team in no different. They once again are known for their ferocious defense, evidenced by their 49.4 points allowed per game, tops in the country. The Cougars rely on two explosive guards in Marcus Sasser (16.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.6 apg) and Jamal Shead (7.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 5.7 apg) to create on offense. Sasser, a first-team preseason All-American, came into the season with a lot of hype and has delivered so far, as EvanMiya.com ranks him the No. 10 player in the country so far this season.
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After an easy start to the year where the Cougars weren’t tested much, they’ve had a few tough battles, but held on to win against Saint Mary’s (53-48) and at Oregon (66-56). Last Saturday, the Cougars were handed their first loss of the season against now No. 4 Alabama (71-65). Sasser hasn't been great in the games against top competition this year, averaging just 12.7 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists on 30.6% from the field and 18.8% from three-point range across those three contests. He is the engine that provides this group with firepower, so he will have to play at a high level for the Cougars to have a real shot at knocking off Virginia.
As elite as Houston is on the defensive end, one thing to note is that they are a little undersized, as the primary bigs, J’Wan Roberts and Jarace Walker are 6'7" and 6'8" respectively. In those three games against Oregon, Houston, and Alabama, the Cougs were out-rebounded by a combined margin of 23. Houston is elite as an offensive rebounding team (14th in the nation with 13.9 per game), but they aren't as nearly as strong on the defensive glass.
Houston is a title contender this season, but they missed their opportunity for a marquee win when they blew a double-digit second half lead against Alabama. A win here could have massive implications come selection Sunday for Sampson's group.
Virginia Team Preview:
Record: 8-0
KenPom Ranking: 9th (10th in Offensive Efficiency, 16th in Defensive Efficiency)
UVA hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since their 2019 National Championship run, but the Cavaliers are back in the national spotlight after their perfect start to the season. This veteran team is led by guards Kihei Clark (11.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 5.0 apg) and Reece Beekman (10 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 4.6 apg), as well as old school big man Jayden Gardner (11.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 0.8 apg). This balanced attack of scoring is very consistent with Tony Bennett squads in the past, which can make them so tough to play, of course along with their disciplined defense.
Virginia has two massive non-conference wins against Illinois and Baylor (both top 20 in KenPom) from the Continental Tire Main Event back at the beginning of the season. They also have an impressive road win at Michigan, as well as a sneaky quality win against James Madison (favorite to win the Sun Belt).
Surprisingly, the key to the Cavaliers success this season has actually been their offensive efficiency. The pace of play remains incredibly low (2nd slowest in Division I), but they have been shooting the lights out, with a 57.6% True Shooting Percentage in their four biggest wins of the year. Their three starting guards (Clark, Beekman and Armaan Franklin) are all shooting over 40% from three-point range this year. Additionally, their two starting forwards (Gardner and Kadin Shedrick) are shooting a combined 58.4% from the field.
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Beekman is one of the best perimeter defenders in the ACC, so a potential x-factor in this contest will be how well he can guard Sasser.
The Pick: Houston -2.5
This is going to be a fascinating matchup from an Xs and Os perspective, and I expect it to be close. The total for this game is incredibly low at 113, as easy baskets will be tough to find against these two incredibly disciplined groups. Sasser is due for a big game, and if he can find his stroke from long range it can open up things for Houston offensively. I can see UVA’s guards struggling to get things going against the athleticism of the Cougars. Virginia's perimeter players have been remarkably efficient this season, but this offense has turned in some weak outings at home, including a 62-point output against Florida State and just 55 against James Madison. Houston is the better team, so I'm willing to take them and the small number on the road Saturday afternoon. Even though the total is so low, I'd still play the under, as it's hard to imagine this game is anything other than a slow grind.
Score Prediction: Houston 64, Virginia 58
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Jack is a contributing basketball writer at Deacons Daily