KenPom predicts Wake Forest’s remaining schedule
After looking like a mediocre team at best in losses to Clemson, LSU and Rutgers, Wake Forest turned on the gas to beat two of the best teams in the ACC, Duke and Virginia Tech.
Now, the Deacs are at their highest NET ranking this season, No. 81, and are rated at No. 88 in KenPom and No. 75 in Torvik.
Read our ACC Power Rankings here.
At 10-4 overall and 2-1 in conference, Wake Forest is currently fourth in the ACC, sitting above powerhouses like Duke, North Carolina and Virginia.
Despite winning two ranked games — against No. 14 Wisconsin and No. 16 Duke — Wake Forest did not receive any votes in this week’s AP Poll.
Let’s take a look at the road ahead for the Deacs and how KenPom sees the rest of their season faring.
The Next Five
at North Carolina; Wed. Jan. 4, 9pm ET, ACC Network
18% chance of win, 81-70 loss
at Louisville; Sat. Jan. 7, 3pm ET, ACC Network
79% chance of win, 75-66 victory
vs Florida State; Wed. Jan. 11, 9pm ET, ACC Network
80% chance of win, 80-70 victory
at Boston College; Sat. Jan. 14, 8pm ET, ESPNU/2
62% chance of win, 70-67 victory
vs Clemson; Tue. Jan. 17, 9pm ET, RSN
53% chance of win, 74-73 victory
READ: Three ACC Teams in AP men’s basketball poll, zero votes for Wake Forest
The wins over Duke and Virginia Tech have gone a long way to push the Deacs back into ACC relevancy for the second-straight season, but as mentioned earlier today in our power rankings, Wake Forest won when both teams were missing key players. To be a tournament team, Wake Forest must not only pick off a few upsets, but win the games they are supposed to.
That means going 4-1 in this stretch is vital. Wins over Louisville and Boston College are non-negotiables, and Wake Forest cannot repeat their dismal second half against the Tigers in December when they play them at home. Florida State should prove to be a tough task, and UNC likely tougher. Dropping one game here is acceptable and understandable, but anything more than that would be a disappointment. Going 5-0 and snapping a win up in Chapel Hill would be huge for the Deacs.
A Tough Stretch
vs Virginia; Sat. Jan. 21, 2pm ET, ESPN2/U
32% chance of win, 69-64 loss
at Pitt; Wed. Jan. 25, 7pm ET, ACC Network
33% chance of win, 76-71 loss
vs NC State; Sat. Jan. 28, 1pm ET, ACC Network
53% chance of win, 76-75 victory
at Duke; Tue. Jan. 31, 7pm ET, ESPN/2
16% chance of win, 77-66 loss
at Notre Dame; Sat. Feb. 4, 1pm ET, RSN
48% chance of win, 72-71 loss
vs North Carolina; Tue. Feb. 7, 7pm ET, ESPN/2
37% chance of win, 77-74 loss
READ: Takeaways from Wake Forest’s 77-75 win over Virginia Tech
If Wake Forest is able to make it out of the next five games successfully, even more hardship awaits them. In their following six games, Ken Pom only predicts them winning one against NC State, and that’s by a point. For Wake Forest to go where they want this season — deep in the ACC Tournament and dance in March — they can’t go 1-5 here. Likely, Wake will need to defend the Joel and win against NC State and North Carolina like they did last season. Beating Virginia on their home floor would be a much added bonus.
Defeating Duke in Cameron is a very tough task, but the Deacs came quite close to doing it in early 2022. Going to Pitt and Notre Dame will be challenging as well — Pitt is proving to be a formidable team, and a long trek to South Bend is not easy.
Best case scenario, Wake Forest drops one or two of these games — likely to Duke and Virginia/UNC/Pitt. Worst case, they could lose just about all of them.
The Final Turn
vs Georgia Tech; Sat. Feb. 11, 5pm ET, ACC Network
75% chance of win, 75-68 victory
at Miami; Sat. Feb. 18, 2pm ET, RSN
23% chance of win, 80-72 loss
at NC State; Wed. Feb. 22, 9pm ET, RSN
30% chance of win, 78-73 loss
vs Notre Dame; Sat. Feb. 25, 7pm ET, ACC Network
70% chance of win, 74-68 victory
vs Boston College; Tue, Feb. 28, 7pm ET, ESPNU
81% chance of win, 74-64 victory
at Syracuse; Sat. Mar. 4, 5pm ET, RSN
40% chance of win, 73-71 loss
READ: Sam Hartman's best moments at Wake Forest
No win is easy in the ACC, but the trio of home matchups with Georgia Tech, Notre Dame and Boston College are three of the lower-tier teams in the conference. Where Wake Forest will once again have to prove themselves is on the road. Miami is one of the best teams in the ACC, and it’s a long flight down south. Fortunately for the Deacs, that game falls right after their mid-week bye, so they will have ample time to prepare for the Hurricanes, who will come off a trip to Chapel Hill.
Syracuse is always a tough battle for Wake Forest, and should prove to be a challenge, and NC State appears to be much better this year. The Deacs would love to have five wins out of these final six.
KenPom Projection
As of the posting of this article, KenPom projects Wake Forest to end the season 18-13 overall and an even 10-10 in the ACC. That record would more than likely keep the Deacs out of the NCAA Tournament.
But, KenPom currently has Wake Forest going 1-5 in what we tabbed “The Tough Stretch.” If the Deacs can flip one or two there, possibly against Pitt, Notre Dame or North Carolina, they have a fighting chance. Getting to 12 or 13 ACC wins this season would likely send the Deacs dancing, especially with a far better performance in Quad One games thus far (Wisconsin and Duke).
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Essex is the lead football writer and a managing editor for Deacons Daily. Essex served as the Sports Editor for the Old Gold & Black for two years, in addition to roles as a beat and feature writer.