Miami at Notre Dame: Preview and Prediction- ACC Basketball Pick of the Day

The Hurricanes take on the Fighting Irish in this ACC matchup

The No. 14 Miami Hurricanes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish return to ACC play with a Friday afternoon battle in South Bend.

Gameday Info:

Tipoff: 2:00 p.m. ET.

TV: ACC Network 

Spread: Miami -3

Total: 144

Miami Team Overview:

Record: 12-0 (3-0 ACC)

KenPom: 40th (12th Offensive, 105th Defensive)

Form: W 66-64 vs Virginia, W 91-76 vs St. Francis PA, W 80-73 vs NC State

Best players:

Jr. G Isaiah Wong (17.2 ppg, 4.6 reb, 4.5 ast, 1.8 stl)
Sr. G Jordan Miller (14.8 ppg, 6.0 reb, 52.9 FG%)
So. F Norchad Omier (13.5 ppg, 9.8 reb, 1.4 blks)

The Hurricanes are winners of eight straight games and are one of the hottest teams in the country.

Coach Jim Larrañaga is fielding a similar squad to the one that made a surprise Elite Eight run last season. Once again, Miami features an undersized lineup that thrives off of floor spacing and forcing turnovers. Coach L is also keeping his rotation tight and playing his core guys big minutes.

Wong is the frontrunner for ACC Player of the Year, and he’s averaging 26 points and 7.25 assists per game over his last four contests. This playmaking ability is a new aspect of his game — he averaged just two assists per game last season. Miller has is rock solid on both ends, and his impact on the glass and behind the three-point line are crucial. Omier’s athleticism gives Miami a strong interior presence on both ends, although he’s undersized at 6-7. Nijel Pack (11.2 ppg, 32.3 3P%) is still in a bit of a shooting slump, which makes Miami’s start to the season even more impressive.

Miami is the second worst defensive rebounding team in the ACC (23.8 per game), so one way they can be exploited is on the glass. This is their third road test of the season. In their first two road battles, they beat UCF (54th in KenPom) by two and crushed 2-11 Louisville.

Notre Dame Team Overview

Record: 8-5 (0-2 ACC)

KenPom: 105th (43rd Offensive, 203rd Defensive)

Form: W 59-43 vs Jacksonville, L 73-72 at Florida State, L 77-62 vs Georgia

Best players:

F Nate Laszewski (14.3 ppg, 7.7 reb, 40.4 3P%)
Fr. G JJ Starling (13.1 ppg, 3.3 reb, 44.0 FG%)
Sr. G Cormac Ryan (12.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 42.9 3P%)

Mike Brey’s team has been one of the biggest disappointments in the ACC this season. Brey has a skilled veteran group that returned the majority of key pieces from a team that won two games in the NCAA Tournament last season. The Irish finding themselves outside the KenPom top 100 at this point of the season is quite the surprise, and it’s clear that the struggles on the defensive end are the main reason why.

This is one of the craziest statistics you’ll hear — Notre Dame is second-best in Division I in taking care of the ball, only committing 9.1 turnovers per game. But they are second-to-LAST in the country in turnovers forced per game, with 8.69. The fact that this team is nationally elite in terms of taking care of the ball and they still have a negative turnover margin is absurd.

With the backcourt of Starling, Ryan, Dane Goodwin (11.2 ppg, 45.5 3P%) and Trey Wertz (10.0 ppg, 3.7 apg), Notre Dame was supposed to be able to have enough offensive prowess to make up for their limited length and athleticism on the other end of the floor. But that has not been the case. The Fighting Irish are coming off of a 59-43 win over Jacksonville (KP 106th), and that scoring output at home is embarrassingly low against that level of competition.

This group has the coaching, the three-point shooting and the experience to turn their season around, but to this point they have not looked like a very good basketball team outside of the 70-52 win over Michigan State back on Nov. 30.

The Pick; Miami -3

Usually I’d like to side with the veteran group at home here in a matchup of similarly offensive-minded teams. However I can’t back Notre Dame with any level of confidence based on the recent results for these two teams. Miami looks like one of the top few teams in the league, and I don’t see anyone on Notre Dame having success slowing down Isaiah Wong. These teams are in similar boats with essentially seven man rotations and the heavy reliance on a single frontcourt player (Omier/Lazewski). While Miami likely won’t be able to force turnovers as well as they usually do, they won’t be at a disadvantage on the glass, a rare luxury for them. I wouldn’t be surprised if Notre Dame leads at half because Miami hasn’t played in 10 days, but I expect the better team to get into a rhythm after halftime and break this game open. I don’t expect Notre Dame to squander this season completely, but this won't be game where they turn things around.

Score Prediction: Miami 75 Notre Dame 68

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