No. 23 Miami vs Virginia Tech: Preview and Prediction
Another exciting ACC showdown is on the docket as Virginia Tech takes on Miami in Coral Gables on Tuesday night.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPNU
Spread: Miami -4
Total: 148
Virginia Tech Team Overview:
Record: 13-8 (3-7)
KenPom Ranking: 50th (40th Offense, 64th Defense)
Recent Games: W 85-70 vs Syracuse, W 78-75 vs Duke, L 51-50 at Clemson
Leading Scorers:
So. G Sean Pedulla (15.5 ppg, 4.1 apg, 1.3 spg)
Sr. F Grant Basile (14.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 50 FG%)
Sr. F Justyn Mutts (12.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 4.5 apg, 57.8 FG%)
The Hokies lost seven games in a row in a stretch that lasted exactly a month, but have bounced back with two huge home wins this past week. They held off a surging Blue Devil squad with a three point victory before dominating a solid Syracuse side.
A big reason for the recent turnaround is the return of Hunter Cattoor, the hero of last year’s ACC tournament, who missed four of the seven losses with a forearm injury. Cattoor dropped a combined 35 points against Duke and Syracuse off of eleven made three-pointers. Additionally, senior forward Grant Basile received ACC Player of the Week honors for his recent performances. Basile scored 49 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the two victories.
Sophomore point guard Sean Pedulla has been fantastic all season long, and will look to bounce back after an off game against Syracuse. Foul trouble forced him to play a season-low 17 minutes, where he scored a season-low six points. Head coach Mike Young places immense confidence in his abilities to score and facilitate offensively. The heart and soul of the team is do-it-all forward Justyn Mutts. Mutts leads the team with 152 rebounds, 90 assists, and 32 steals.
As a team, VT ranks top three in the conference in both field goal percentage (46.8%) and assists (15.2). They move the ball extremely well and have four independent offensive outlets who can all get the job done. Of note: the fifth starter, Darius Maddox, was held scoreless in his last two appearances, and missed the Syracuse game due to a family matter. His status for this game is unclear.
Miami Team Overview:
Record: 16-5 (7-4)
KenPom Ranking: 39th (12th Offense, 110th Defense)
Recent Games: 71-68 L at Pittsburgh, W 86-63 at Florida State, L 68-66 at Duke
Leading Scorers:
Jr. G Isaiah Wong (16.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.4 spg)
Sr. G Jordan Miller (15 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 54.3 FG%)
So. F Norchiad Omier (13.5 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 59.5 FG%)
The Hurricanes have held onto their spot in the AP Top 25, even though they have dropped four of their last seven contests. The latest contribution to this mid-season stall was a three point defeat to a tough Pittsburgh side in hostile territory. Miami allowed an eight point lead to slip away in the final two minutes thanks to several key mistakes by star guard Isaiah Wong. Wong and Jordan Miller combined for nearly half of the team’s scoring with 32 points.
The Hurricanes have failed to execute down the stretch in close games, and for three consecutive Saturday's Miami lost a road game by one possession. A loss is a loss, but this team is still playing at a very high level lately. Back on Tuesday, the Hurricanes put on an offensive exhibition, notching 23 assists and drilling 11 long balls on their way to a decimation of Florida State.
Miller is one of the most underrated players in the ACC, and his recent efficiency has moved himself just outside the top five in the conference in FG% (54.3). The leader in this category is Arkansas State transfer Norchad Omier, who has done a very impressive job playing the five spot in Jim Larrañaga's system this season. Omier's efficient offensive play in concurrence with grabbing the second most rebounds per game in the league has established him as one of the ACC’s premier big men.
An x-factor for Miami has been the play of Nijel Pack, who's scoring has been quite inconsistent. Over his last six games, he scored less than nine points three times, and 15 or more in each of the others. This team has looked the best when Pack is taking pressure off of Wong and burying triples.
These core players, in combination solid bench contributors behind them, allow Miami to retain the title of No. 1 in the ACC in terms of offensive efficiency week in and week out. In spite of their nationally elite offense, the Hurricanes must focus on winning the turnover battle, and avoiding the late-game mistakes that have cost them lately.
Prediction:
The Hurricanes are undefeated in eleven matchups in their home gym, and they will be desperate for a resounding victory here to get back on track. The Hokies once again look like one of the better teams in the league with Cattoor back in the mix, and would love to pick up a Quad 1 win here to re-enter the NCAA Tournament picture.
While some of the personnel is different, stylistically these teams are exactly who they were last season. These two squads split their two matchups last year, and both teams won a one possession game on the road. This one should be another great battle.
A key to this game will be with turnovers. Miami loves to force mistakes and get out and run, but the Hokies are top 15 in the nation in fewest giveaways per game. So Virginia Tech's ability to take care of the ball will be crucial.
The 6'7" Omier consistently holds his own against much bigger players, so things won't be easy for Basile, but he's playing at such a high level right now that it might not matter who is guarding him. The Mutts/Miller matchup is interesting as well. Miller regularly guards taller players as well, but Mutts is one of the most physical players in the conference.
In four of their six road losses, the Hokies have finished regulation within 2 points of their opponent. I'm going to take Miami to win a close one and remain undefeated Coral Gables, but I see Virginia Tech doing enough to take it down to the wire. In a matchup this tight, I'll grab the points.
The Pick: Virginia Tech +4
Score Prediction: Miami 70, Virginia Tech 69
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Chase is a contributing writer at Deacons Daily