No. 8 Virginia vs No. 22 NC State: Preview and Prediction
The ACC’s best offense and defense meet in a marquee matchup on Tuesday night.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ACCN
Spread: Virginia -7.5
Total: 137.5
North Carolina State Team Overview:
Record: 19-5 (9-4)
KenPom Ranking: 47th (39th Offense, 63rd Defense)
Recent Games: W 72-64 vs Georgia Tech, W 94-66 vs Florida State, W 79-77 at Wake Forest
Leading Scorers:
So. G Terquavion Smith (18.5 ppg, 4.6 apg, 1.7 spg)
Sr. G Jarkel Joiner (16.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.2 spg)
Sr. G Casey Morsell (12.6 ppg, 48.6 FG%, 43.9 3PT%)
The Wolfpack are the hottest squad in the ACC at the moment; they have posted wins in eight of their last nine conference matchups. This has elevated them to an AP Top 25 ranking at No. 22 ahead of a big three game road trip.
The latest of these victories was an eight point victory at home over lowly Georgia Tech. Despite a close margin for the majority of the second half, State closed the game on a 14-3 run to put it away. Senior forward DJ Burns Jr. led the scoring with 24 points. The big man has been dominating down low lately — he's averaging 23 per game over his last three. Casey Morsell drilled four threes on his way to 17 points, his highest scoring output during ACC play.
On the heels of this result, State is proving to have some dangerous depth and experience behind their two main stars. The ACC’s leading scorer, Terquavion Smith, posted his lowest scoring total in over a year with just five points on 2-11 shooting. His star backcourt mate, Jarkel Joiner, could only muster five as well on 1-6. Even with a mere ten combined points from one of their dynamic guard the Wolfpack were still able to remain in the win column.
With so many different offensive options, State leads the ACC with 79.6 points per game, a mark good enough for top 30 in the country. They achieve this mark by getting shots up at a top ten rate in the nation with 64 field goals attempted per game, while limiting turnovers at a top three rate in conference (9.8).
The Wolfpack embody several essential characteristics for elongated success throughout a competitive ACC season. They have the seniority required to thrive in hostile environments and foreign game situations and have several different options to confidently play through. If they stay healthy throughout the next month, State will be one of the most dangerous squads come March.
Virginia Team Overview:
Record: 17-4 (9-3)
KenPom Ranking: 16th (24th Offense, 26th Defense)
Recent Games: 74-68 L at Virginia Tech, W 67-62 at Syracuse, W 76-57 vs Boston College
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G Armaan Franklin (12.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 39.8 3PT%)
Sr. G Kihei Clark (11.6 ppg, 6 apg, 40 3PT%)
Sr. F Jayden Gardner (11.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 59.5 FG%)
After splitting their first four games in conference play, the Cavaliers ripped off seven straight ACC victories before falling to Virginia Tech away this past weekend. However, Tony Bennett’s squad hasn’t lost at John Paul Jones arena in nearly two months.
Virginia’s recent loss to their in-state rivals can be accredited to an off night for their typically prolific defensive approach. The Hokies became only the second team this season to shoot over 50% as a team against the Cavaliers and the first in conference.
All of Virginia’s typical contributors offensively showed up in the defeat with the exception of leading scorer Armaan Franklin. Franklin scored in double digits in ten straight games before posting a mere five points in this one. His output is correlated to hs teams' success - he's only scoring 7.5 per game across UVA's four losses.
Even with the aberration, the Cavaliers continue to rank among the top ten in the nation and top in conference by holding opponents to 60.9 points per game. The difference with this year’s squad is their ability to impress on the offensive end as well, as they lead the ACC with 16.4 team assists per game. Upperclassmen guards Kihei Clark and Reece Beekham both place in the top three in conference with 6 and 5.1 assists per game respectively.
Prediction:
Quite frankly, the Wolfpack are not being given their flowers. They boast one of the most talented and dynamic offensive sides in the nation, let alone in the ACC, and come into this one as multi-possession underdogs. However, there is serious reason to fear the Cavaliers at home, who have only lost to the current No. 2 Houston there this season.
Smith has stepped up in big spots all season. He's averaging over twenty points in his team’s three matchups vs ranked teams. Tony Bennett's pack-line defense will definitely challenge his ability to get to the basket, but he's a star who's never afraid to shoot, so he'll still be able to find spots to let it fly. It'll be huge for the Wolfpack if he can get some looks in transition, and knock down some shots over the top of the defense from long range.
For Virginia to cover this spread playing at the pace they do, they need to be very efficient offensively, and absolutely stifle their opponent. I really struggle to believe that the Cavaliers cruise here and State doesn't make it interesting. NC State's last two losses did come by double-digits on the road, but Clemson and North Carolina are much more capable offensively of opening up leads. Kevin Keatts' squad has ample experience to handle this challenging away matchup, and I'm expecting them to keep this one close throughout and be right there at the end with a chance to win it.
The Pick: NC State +7.5
Score Prediction: Virginia 66, NC State 63
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Chase is a contributing writer at Deacons Daily