Pitt vs No. 20 Miami: Preview and Prediction
The Pittsburgh Panthers host the No. 20 Miami Hurricanes on Saturday afternoon, as both teams look for their eighth ACC win.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPNU
Spread: Pitt -1
Total: 148.5
Miami Team Overview:
Record: 16-4 (7-3)
KenPom Ranking: 35th (10th Offense, 116th Defense)
Recent Games: W 86-63 at Florida State, L 68-66 at Duke, W 82-78 vs Syracuse
Leading Scorers:
Jr. G Isaiah Wong (16.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.5 spg)
Sr. G Jordan Miller (14.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 53.3 FG%)
So. F Norchiad Omier (13.7 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 59.7 FG%)
After ripping off 13 wins in their first 14 games, the Hurricanes have split their last six matchups. All three of their losses came away from the Watsco Center; however, they were able to secure their first road conference win this past Tuesday over Florida State.
Miami dominated against their interstate rivals, winning by 23. Isaiah Wong returned to form with 18 points and nine rebounds after a disappointing two game stretch where he scored a combined 16. On the heels of Wong’s return to form, the Hurricanes starters shot at a ridiculous 58% clip while shooting above 50% from beyond the arc. It was the first time Jim Larranaga’s squad has beaten the Seminoles in over five years.
Wong will continue to deservingly grab the headlines, but the meaningful narrative with this team is the development of the players around him. At the forefront of this growth are Nijel Pack and Norchad Omier, both big off-season acquisitions who have started to pay serious dividends. Over Miami’s last three games, Pack is scoring 17 points per game while shooting 52% from deep. Omier, the 6-7 big man, has continued to dominate on the interior. His ten double doubles on the season are good enough for 12th in the nation.
Fifth-year player Jordan Miller continues to impact winning in a plethora of ways for this team, and has emerged as a very reliable complimentary scoring option. He's scored in double figures in 14 straight contests.
Thanks to their depth and balance, the Hurricanes flow extremely well offensively. The top 10 KenPom mark in adjusted offensive efficiency puts them in elite national company. They lead the ACC in field goal percentage while shooting at a 47.8% clip, and rank third in scoring at 78.2 points per game.
Pitt Team Overview:
Record: 14-7 (7-3)
KenPom Ranking: 64th (47th Offense, 98th Defense)
Recent Games: W 81-79 vs Wake Forest, L 71-64 vs Florida State, W 75-54 at Louisville
Leading Scorers:
Jr. F Blake Hinson (16.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 37.7 3PT%)
Sr. G Jamarius Burton (15.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.7 apg, 53.4 FG%)
Sr. G Greg Elliott (11 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 41 3PT%)
Preseason ACC polls had Pittsburgh finishing as low as 14th but the Panthers have won seven of their first ten ACC matchups on the way to a top three position in the conference. They have shown an impressive ability to hang with the nation’s best, as three of those seven are quadrant one victories.
In their last victory, Pittsburgh watched a Tyree Appleby three rim out in the final seconds to secure a two point victory at home over the Demon Deacons. The Panthers were red hot from deep, connecting on a program record 18 made three-pointers. One of the surprise breakouts in the league this year, Blake Hinson, was responsible for eight of them, another program program-record.
This result is a microcosm of Pittsburgh's offensive approach this season; they live and die from beyond the three point line. They attempt an ACC-leading 26.3 threes per game and make nearly 35% of them. In the win over Wake Forest, they shot it at a 48.6% clip. Hinson and Greg Elliott are both top 10 in the ACC in three-pointers made per game.
This Pitt team has multiple guys who can create for themselves and make tough shots. Jamarius Burton is top-twelve in the league in scoring, and turned in one of the best individual performances in the ACC this season back on Dec. 30. In a win over North Carolina, Burton scored 31 points on 14-17 shooting. He's a dynamic offensive player, ranking fifth in the league in assists per game. 24-year old Colgate transfer Nelly Cummings compliments him well, and is seventh in the league in assists.
Jeff Capel's squad is one of the oldest in the country, as the five leading scorers on the team are between 22 and 24 years-old. This veteran group has plenty of capable playmakers, and anchored by 6'11" Fede Federiko (third in the ACC in blocks), they are solid on the defensive end as well.
Prediction:
Both of these teams are offensively oriented, and boast several stars who can put the ball in the basket at an efficient clip.
Last weekend, the Panthers experienced their worst performance of the season in a home loss to the Seminoles. They took 28 threes and only made seven in the defeat, as they clearly go as far as their shooters can take them. They bounced back well in the win over Wake Forest, and in another crucial matchup on their home floor against a subpar Miami defense, I see the Panthers keeping the momentum going.
They have already acquired two ranked home victories over the Tar Heels and the Cavaliers in early January and should have no problem adding another to the resume in this one. This is a confident Pittsburgh side that has the requisite talent to hang with and defeat the best ACC sides. A win over Miami this Saturday will prove once again that the Panthers are serious conference title contenders this season.
The Pick: Pitt -1
Final Score: Pitt 79, Miami 74
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Chase is a contributing writer at Deacons Daily