Syracuse vs No. 23 NC State: Preview and Prediction
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Carrier Dome, Syracuse NY
TV: ACC Network
Spread: Syracuse -1
Total: 149
Syracuse Team Preview
Record: 17-7 (8-5)
KenPom Ranking: 88th (68th Offense, 120th Defense)
Recent Games: 76-67 W at Florida State, 77-68 W at Boston College, 67-62 L vs Virginia
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G Joseph Girard III (17.0 ppg, 3.2 apg, 3.0 rpg)
Fr. G Judah Mintz (15.4 ppg, 4.5 apg, 2.0 spg)
Sr. C Jesse Edwards (14.2 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 2.8 bpg)
Who would have thought that Duke, UNC, and Syracuse would have the same ACC record at this point in the season? The Orange have done a great job at taking care of business against the weaker teams in the ACC, but they've struggled against the better ones.
Syracuse’s big three of Joe Girard III, Judah Mintz, and Jesse Edwards is one of the best trios in the ACC. Girard III dropped 26 points and made five three-pointers against a Florida State team with a lot of size and length on the defensive end, while Edwards put up 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Mintz also had 16 points and 6 assists, capping off the productive day for the trifecta.
The problem with Syracuse is their inability to pull off a big win this season. They've had their chances, losing to Virginia, Miami (FL), North Carolina, and Pittsburgh all by five points or less.
Boeheim still seems to be playing around with his rotations quite a bit. Outside of the big three, almost every player’s minutes vary quite a bit depending on the matchup. In their last game against Florida State, freshman forward Chris Bell got 34 minutes of run after not playing more than 11 minutes in his previous three games. Meanwhile, freshmen Maliq Brown and Justin Taylor saw their minutes decrease dramatically, even though they both looked like they would be major players in the end of season rotation. Boeheim obviously likes deploying his various role players depending on the matchup, so be on the lookout for what he will do against NC State.
At the end of the day, the success of this Syracuse team depends on how its star players perform. Edwards is first in the ACC in blocks and second in rebounds, while Girard III is fifth in points and Mintz is eighth in assists.
Syracuse as a team is first in the ACC in blocks per game, but they allow offensive rebounds on a league worse 31.9% of their defensive possessions.
North Carolina State Team Overview
Record: 20-6 (10-5)
KenPom Ranking: 41st (41st Offense, 54th Defense)
Recent Games: 92-62 W at Boston College, 63-50 L vs Virginia, 72-64 W vs Georgia Tech
Leading Scorers:
So. G Terquavion Smith (18.5 ppg, 4.6 apg, 1.6 spg)
Sr. G Jarkel Joiner (16.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.4 apg)
Sr. G Casey Morsell (12.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 45.0% 3P)
Kevin Keatts has done a phenomenal job turning this NC State program around. After finishing dead last in the ACC a year ago, Keatts has this team at No. 23 in the AP Poll. The Wolfpack are currently in fifth place in the ACC and would love to get into that top four to secure a double bye during the ACC tournament, a tournament that they haven’t won since 1987. This NC State team is a lot of fun to watch and has multiple guys who can go get a bucket when needed.
Terquavion Smith is the leader of this team, and he's been playing quite well recently, averaging 18.3 points and 5.8 assists over his past four games. Casey Morsell has also been on fire, averaging 17 points and shooting 54.2% from deep during his last three. Jarkel Joiner has carried his weight as well, putting up 26 points, six assists, and five steals in the blowout win over Boston College on Saturday. Overall, their three guards obliterate other opposing backcourts and are all playing well coming into this one, which is a scary sight for Syracuse fans.
Winthrop transfer DJ Burns has been a beast down low recently and is averaging 12.2 points and 5.2 rebounds in only 22.2 minutes per game this season. Burns has scored in double digits in all but two games in conference play and has dominated in massive wins against Duke and Wake Forest this season.
Keatts received a big boost when La Salle transfer Jack Clark returned to the lineup for the first time since December, giving the Wolfpack some much needed rebounding and physicality. Clark only played 10 minutes in the win against Boston College, but expect him to play much more in this one. In 27.1 minutes per game in 15 appearances this season, Clark averages 7.1 rebounds. Greg Gantt will likely see less minutes now, but continue to be an important piece of depth.
As a team, NC State is known for taking care of the ball on the offensive end, as they average the third least amount of turnovers and have the fourth best assist to turnover percentage in the ACC. They also crash the glass hard, as they are second in the ACC in offensive rebounding. On the defensive end, they block the second most shots in the ACC and are fourth in blocks per foul called.
Prediction:
Syracuse still hasn't beaten an ACC team with a winning record yet. Is this the game they finally do it?
Both of these teams do a great job blocking shots and controlling the interior with different types of big men in Jesse Edwards and DJ Burns.
Smith, Joiner, and Morsell are all shotmakers who can get a bucket anywhere on the floor, and I’d expect them to take advantage of the holes the zone will open up.
The addition of Jack Clark into the lineup is massive, making the Wolfpack an older and deeper team than Syracuse. The main ways to capitalize against the zone are three-pointers and offensive rebounds, two main strengths of NC State.
The Orange seem put up a good fight at home every time, but the common thread is they aren't able to come away with a win against good teams. I see that trend continuing Tuesday night, as I'd rather take the more balanced team with the best player on the floor.
The Pick: NC State +1
Final Score Prediction: NC State 79, Syracuse 76
2022-23 ATS Record: 5-7
Jack is a contributing basketball writer at Deacons Daily