Takeaways from Wake Forest's 80-72 win vs Louisville
Wake Forest ground out an ugly win on the road Saturday afternoon, defeating Louisville 80-72. The Deacs secured their third ACC win of the year despite an ugly second half. Here's what we learned from the victory.
Defensive rebounding could become a vulnerability
According to KenPom, Wake Forest is fourth best in the ACC during conference play in offensive rebound percentage allowed at 25.5%. While statistically the Deacs don’t rank as a poor rebounding team, it’s evident through the personnel that it’s not a strength of the group. On Saturday, Louisville grabbed 15 offensive rebounds in the second half. After the game, head coach Steve Forbes said “They got a bunch of offensive rebounds, and we fouled too much. Those are the two worst things that can happen when you have a big lead.”
I wrote in a recent version of takeaways that 6’4” Cam Hildreth is the team's best rebounder. While it’s nice to have guards who help out on the glass of course, ideally you’d like one of your bigs to be a plus rebounder. great rebounders, it’s necessary that everybody crashes the glass. Andrew Carr had been rebounding well during the three games heading into this one (7.7 rpg), but he only grabbed two on Saturday. He only grabbed five against Rutgers, two against LSU, three against Wisconsin, and three against Georgia. Carr is a capable rebounder but most teams are bigger and more physical underneath.
Matthew Marsh led the team with six defensive rebounds on Saturday. Which was great, but he’s still raw as a talent, and not a very technically sound rebounder. He doesn’t have the best hands or instincts, but the potential is there, and he’s obviously gotten much better over the course of the season. If he can learn to use his body better and be a bit more physical, he could be dominant as a rebounder. Davion Bradford played 13 minutes off the bench, committed three fouls, and grabbed two rebounds.
Wake hasn’t been consistently exploited on the offensive glass at all this season — and credit where credit is due — Louisville is great at generating second chance opportunities. But this game highlighted the fact that frontcourt for the Demon Deacons can be outmatched physically. When Carr/Marsh/Bradford do play well on defense and are physical on the glass, it makes Wake Forest a much better team.
“I thought our bigs did not play well,” said Forbes. “Not one of them.”
Damari Monsanto is Wake’s second best scorer
A college basketball team that is legitimately strong always has more than one guy that can go for 20 points on any given night. Carr has done it once this season, same with Daivien Williamson, but second leading scorer Cameron Hildreth has not. Obviously Tyree Appleby has plenty of times, but Damari Monsanto is now second on the team with three 20+ point performances. We’ve known for a while now about how talented and pure of a three-point shooter Monsanto is, but ever since his benching for the App State game on Dec. 14, he’s stepped up his game to become undeniably the team’s second best offensive player.
Monsanto scored 21 points on 8-16 shooting against Louisville, connecting on 5-12 from long range. Over his last five contests, he’s averaging 16.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.2 steals, while making 18-46 (39.1%) of his three-point shots. He’s also been mixing in some two-point scoring lately as well — he’s a combined 6-7 on field goals inside the arc against Lousiville and North Carolina.
Wake Forest is best when Damari is picking his spots wisely but being aggressive. His ability to play off the ball, stretch the floor, and attack quickly make the team much more difficult to defend. Being able to score as well as Monsanto while not needing to put the ball on the floor over even have it in his hands very much make him such a valuable piece offensively, and after Appleby, the next best scorer on the team.
This take isn’t a shot at Cam Hildreth, who was fantastic with 19 points on 8-10 shooting. However, while Hildreth has been quite consistent, he doesn’t offer the same ceiling for explosion games because of his lack of a three-point jumpshot. he three-headed monster of Monsanto, Appleby, and Hildreth forms a potent scoring backcourt of players who all have very different strengths.
The Deacs don’t have a lot of ball handlers
When it comes to guard play, Wake Forest has a dynamic, albeit unique starting backcourt that is capable of scoring, distributing and even rebounding at a high level. Appleby leads the team in points per game (17.9) and assists per game (5.8), while Hildreth is second in scoring (11.8) and leads the team in rebounds (6.4). The production of this duo has been superb all year.
The issue is that right now, Hildreth and Appleby are tasked with the entirety of the ball-handling responsibilities. Daivien Williamson plays a lot off the bench and gives a scoring spark, but doesn’t have the handle or passing ability necessary to serve as a true backup point guard. Damari Monsanto has proven himself a valuable scorer (11.8 ppg, 38% 3PT) but has struggled turning the ball over when he tries to do too much off the dribble.
Unfortunately, there is no one else in the rotation aside from Appleby and Hildreth capable of serving as a primary ball handler even for a couple of minutes. Yesterday showed that this approach can leave the team vulnerable in certain situations.
Appleby was in foul trouble for some of the second half against Louisville and had to spend some time on the bench. In the minutes he wasn’t out there, Louisville whittled the lead down to 13 points and and the Deacs struggled to create opportunities on offense. Hildreth is adequate in a primary ball handling role, but the offense flows better when he and Appleby can split the workload. When one or both of them aren’t on the court, the offense is much less dynamic.
I feel like the backup point guard role could be Jao Ituka’s to fill if he can show he’s ready. I watched Ituka in practice a few times during the preseason and he stood out as a strong ball handler with the ability to penetrate into the lane, draw defenders in and create looks for his teammates. This is something Wake Forest sorely needs off the bench, and hopefully Ituka can bring it to the table during the stretch run of the season.
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