Virginia vs Virginia Tech: Preview and Prediction
The No. 10 Cavaliers host their in state rival Wednesday night in an ACC battle.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPNU
Spread: Virginia -7
Moneyline: Virginia -300, Virginia Tech +250
Total: 126.5
Virginia Tech Team Overview
Record: 11-6 (1-5)
KenPom Ranking: 45th (43rd Offense, 60th Defense)
Recent Games: 82-72 L at Syracuse, 73-69 L vs NC State, 68-65 L vs Clemson
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G Sean Pedulla (16.8 ppg, 4.4 ast, 3.8 reb)
Sr. F Grant Basile (13.9 ppg, 5.6 reb, 1.4 blk)
Sr. F Justyn Mutts (13.6 ppg, 7.9 reb, 3.9 ast)
After a very promising non-conference performance from the Hokies, this Virginia Tech team’s chances at an NCAA tournament bid have spiraled down after a five game losing streak in ACC play. They currently sit as a “Next Four Out” team in Joe Lunardi’s latest edition of Bracketology. The reason for their drop off can primarily be attributed to starter Hunter Cattoor’s elbow injury, which occurred in the second half of the loss at Boston College. Although Cattoor’s statline (9.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 40.3% 3P) won’t necessarily blow you away, his absence is clearly affecting this Virginia Tech team that has little depth. The good news is that Cattoor is likely to return in this one, and a marquee win on the road here would get them right back on track.
In other good news, the Hokies saw their star freshman 4-star Rodney Rice make his first appearance of the season after a preseason ankle injury sidelined him until recently. However, Rice shot 1-9 from the field (0-5 from three) with two turnovers on the offensive end but helped out defensively with three steals in 29 minutes of play. It will certainly be interesting to see how he bounces back in his second collegiate game of his career.
Offensively, this team has struggled from the perimeter with Cattoor out. In its four games without him, the Hokies have shot 28.1% from three point range, bringing their season average down to 33.6%. Cattoor shoots the deep ball at a 40.3% clip.
Additionally, this team does a great job of taking care of the ball, averaging 10 turnovers per game (3rd in the ACC). But the Hokies have turned the ball over 11+ times in each of their last four games, all losses.
Defensively, this team is not as strong as it is on the offensive end. Its strengths are not sending its opposition to the free throw line (32nd nationally in opposing free throw rate), as well as forcing tough, inefficient shots (53rd nationally in effective FG% of its opposition). Its weak point is athletic guards who can make the tough, contested jumpers they force. In four of their six losses, they have given up a 20+ scoring outburst by an opposing player and each one was a guard: Tyree Appleby (Wake Forest), Terquavion Smith (NC State), Jarkel Joiner (NC State), Joseph Girard III (Syracuse), and Makai Ashton-Langford (Boston College).
Virginia Team Overview
Record: 13-3 (5-2)
KenPom Ranking: 13th (30th Offense, 17th Defense)
Recent Games: 67-58 W at Florida State, 65-58 W vs North Carolina, 73-66 W vs Syracuse
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G Armaan Franklin (11.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 40.2% 3P)
Sr. G Kihei Clark (11.0 ppg, 6.0 apg, 1.4 spg)
Sr. F Jayden Gardner (10.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 51.2 FG%)
The highest ranked ACC team in this week's AP Poll, the No. 10 Cavaliers are riding a three game winning streak, and have won five of their last six. The most impressive of those wins came last Wednesday, a 65-58 home W vs North Carolina, where Armando Bacot got injured in the opening minutes. It was still a hard fought victory, as the Cavaliers were losing at halftime and fended off a hot UNC team. Now, this UVA team is soaring and comfortably atop the ACC as seen in our most recent Week 10 ACC Power Rankings.
Recently, the Cavaliers have changed their rotation and have been going smaller in most of their recent games. For basically the entire season, junior big man Kadin Shedrick had started at the center position, but he only played five minutes and did not get the start in their most recent game against Florida State. In this same game, senior Ohio transfer Ben Vander Plas played a season high 34 minutes. Their other big man who doesn't' shoot the three ball, Jayden Gardner, only played just 18 minutes. It will be interesting to see whether Bennett sticks with these small-ball lineups in this matchup, or if the Florida State rotation was a one game experiment.
As mentioned previously, this team plays extremely slow offensively (3rd slowest in the nation) with balanced scoring (no player averages more than 12+ ppg). Kihei Clark’s three point shooting has tapered off a bit, but Armaan Franklin and Reece Beekman continue to shoot it incredibly well from downtown (went a combined 6-10 from three against FSU). Additionally, sharpshooting freshman Isaac McKneeley continues to play more and shoots the three ball at 40.6%. The Cavaliers are still first in the ACC in AST/TO ratio by a mile, as Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman both do a great job of taking care of the ball.
Defensively, it will be interesting to see how the small-ball lineup continues to hold up. Shedrick is known as one of the best defensive players on this team and holds down the back end of the pack line defense. Vander Plas definitely gives more offensive pop and has played incredibly well the past two games, but it will be interesting to see if there’s a noticeable defensive dropoff with the Cavaliers going small. A team with strong depth and multiple shotmakers can exploit this UVA pack line defense, so it will be interesting to see how that style of play matches up with Virginia Tech.
The Pick: Virginia Tech +7
The No. 1 Houston Cougars are the only team this season that has handed Virginia a loss in Charlottesville. Virginia Tech is undeniably stumbling entering this game, but I believe Cattoor’s return will ignite the whole team. In a rivalry game coming off of five straight losses, I expect a major sense of urgency from coach Mike Young's Hokies. Statistically, Virginia is strong offensively, but playing at the pace they do, I don't see them pulling away here. When these teams faced off here last season, UVA escaped with a 54-52 win. Once again I think the Hokies have a legitimate shot at pulling off the road upset. I think the home team will win this one in a nail-biter, but regardless, seven-points are far too much to lay against this talented and desperate squad.
Score Prediction: Virginia 67, Virginia Tech 66
2022-23 ATS Record: 5-2
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Jack is a contributing basketball writer at Deacons Daily