Wake Forest at NC State: Preview and Prediction

Game pick for a rivalry Wednesday night ACC matchup

NC State looks to defend home court and complete the season sweep over Wake Forest on Wednesday night.

Gameday Info

Location: PNC Arena - Raleigh, NC

Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET

TV: ACCNX

Spread: NC State -5.5

Total: 155.5

NC State Team Overview:

Record: 21-7 (11-6)

KenPom: 43rd (38th Offensive, 53rd Defensive)

Recent Games: W 77-69 vs UNC, L 75-72 at Syracuse, W 92-62 at Boston College

Leading Scorers:

So. G Terquavion Smith (18.1 ppg, 3.4 reb, 4.5 ast)
Sr. G Jarkel Joiner (16.6 ppg, 4.7 reb, 3.6 ast)
Sr. G Casey Morsell (12.8 ppg, 4.6 reb, 42.7 3P%)

NC State is well on their way to an NCAA Tournament bid after finishing last in the ACC a year ago. Head coach Kevin Keatts has a group with an excellent backcourt, an efficient low post scorer, and solid surrounding depth.

The Wolfpack dropped out of the AP Poll after losing a close road battle to Syracuse last Tuesday, their second loss in the month of February (Jan. 7 at Virginia). In the loss vs the Orange, State shot 9-34 (26.5%) from three-point land.

Keatts' group got back on track on Sunday with a strong second half vs North Carolina. Trailing 54-48 with under ten minutes to go, the Wolfpack went on a 27-9 run and coasted the rest of the way to victory.

Terquavion Smith is the star of this team, but Jarkel Joiner has been outplaying him lately. Joiner has lead the team in scoring over their last three games, turning in 29 against the Tar Heels, a 15-point, 11-assist, 10-rebound triple double against Syracuse, and 26-6-6 in the blowout at Boston College back on Feb. 11.

Smith has been in a bit of a scoring slump lately, as he's only scored over 20 points once in his past nine games.

Casey Morsell knocked down 4+ threes in three straight games earlier this month, and his 42.7% mark from downtown this season ranks second-best in the league.

DJ Burns has scored 15+ points in six of his last seven contests, and has shot over 50% from the field in nine-straight games.

Jack Clark missed over a month of action with an injury but has been available for the Wolfpack for their last three games. His presence on both ends of the floor is a big boost. He contributed 15 points and nine rebounds in the loss to Syracuse.

Wake Forest Team Overview:

Record: 17-10 (9-7)

KenPom: 79th (26th Offensive, 156th Defensive)

Recent Games: L 96-87 at Miami, W 71-70 vs Georgia Tech, W 92-85 vs North Carolina

Leading scorers:

Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.5 ppg, 6.3 ast, 1.6 stl)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (13.4 ppg, 3.7 reb, 39.8 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (12.9 ppg, 5.6 reb, 2.9 ast)

Wake Forest has an outside shot at an at-large bid, but this team has continually come up short in road games against high level competition. This is their last opportunity of the regular season to secure a resume-boosting win.

Steve Forbes' group boasts the second-best offense compared to the ninth-best defense in conference play according to KenPom.

The Demon Deacons failed to extend their three game win streak in Coral Gables on Saturday, as turnovers doomed them in a high scoring affair. Wake gave the ball away 19 times, which Miami turned into 34 points. Six Wake players scored between 12-15 points in the loss.

Knocking down 15-35 (42.9%) shots from behind the arc and not coming away with a win is pretty disheartening. Tyree Appleby turned the ball over an astonishingly high 12 times, which overshadowed his 15 points and nine assists.

The ACC's leader in points and assist won USBWA Player of the Week honors last week for his 35-point, 11-assist performance in the win over North Carolina, and his 16 points and late game heroics in the win over Georgia Tech. 

Damari Monsanto has drilled 4+ three balls in 12 of Wake's last 16 games. The marksman remains the only player in the ACC averaging over 3.0 made three-pointers per game.

Cameron Hildreth was in a bit of a slump earlier this month, but he's been very solid over his last two games. The sophomore scored 14 points and added eight assists vs Miami, and led the team in with 19 points in the win over Georgia Tech.

Freshman Bobi Klintman has seen starter level minutes over his last five games. He's shot 9-15 (60%) from downtown over that span, and grabbed a career high 12 rebounds against the Hurricanes.

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Flashback: Jan. 28, 2023 - NC State wins at Wake Forest 79-77

It was the DJ Burns show in Winston-Salem when these teams met a few weeks back. The big man put together a dominant 31-point performance, 23 of which came after halftime. Wake Forest simply had no answer for him 1v1 in the post, and when Forbes finally brought a double team late in the second half, Burns picked the defense apart with his passing.

The Demon Deacons held a 10-point lead with 13 minutes left on the game clock, but over the next ten minutes the Wolfpack went on a 27-13 run and held on late to win it.

Monsanto scored 22 for Wake Forest, and Appleby added 18 points and seven assists. Terquavion Smith only played 21 minutes because of foul trouble. Both teams took fantastic care of the ball, as there were only 11 total combined turnovers in the contest.

Bobi Klintman only played eight minutes in this game, as his involvement has skyrocketed in the month of February. It's also worth nothing that Jack Clark was still out with injury in the last matchup.

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Prediction:

NC State hasn't lost in PNC Arena since Dec. 2. Wake Forest will have to put together a very impressive performance on both ends of the floor to hand the Wolfpack a second home loss on the season.

I don't expect that to happen. DJ Burns was such a mismatch for Wake Forest defensively last time out that so I'm not very confident things will be much different this time around. Whether Wake tries to trap and scramble or see if either Matthew Marsh and Davion Bradford can hold their own against him on an island, there's a clear advantage down low for Burns and the Wolfpack.

While the Deacs are a better offensive team, it's by a slim margin. In front of a rockin' home crowd that was 19.5K fans strong on Sunday, all signs point to NC State taking care of business on Wednesday night. I expect Wake to put forth a strong effort and maybe even take a lead into halftime, but I see the Wolfpack winning this one and covering the number late.

Final Score Prediction: NC State 78 Wake Forest 72

Season prediction record

15-12 ATS

21-6 Straight up

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