Wake Forest at Notre Dame: Preview and Prediction

Game preview and pick for Saturday's

Gameday Info

Tipoff: 1 p.m. ET

TV: ACCNX

Spread: Wake Forest -3

Total: 149.5

Notre Dame Team Overview:

Record: 10-12 (2-9)

KenPom: 157th (67th Offensive, 287th Defensive)

Recent Games: W 76-62 vs Louisville, L 85-82 at NC State, L 84-72 vs Boston College

Leading Scorers:

Sr. F Nate Laszewski (13.9 ppg, 7.2 reb, 42.1 3PT%)
Fr. G J.J. Starling (12.5 ppg, 3.0 ast, 1.3 ast)
Sr. G Dane Goodwin (12.0 ppg, 5.2 reb, 38.6 3PT%)

It’s been a disaster of a season for the Fighting Irish. Returning four of seven key pieces from a team that won two games in the NCAA Tournament last season, this group has been quite the disappointment. Mike Brey’s squad hasn’t won back to back games since November, and the only two ACC wins Notre Dame has to their name are home victories over Georgia Tech and Louisville.

The Fighting Irish had this week off, as their last game was the win over the Cardinals last Saturday. Freshman JJ Starling led the way with 22 points, building off of a nice 18 point performance a few days prior in the loss at NC State. Starling joins experienced guards Dane Goodwin and Cormac Ryan to form a skilled backcourt. Goodwin’s numbers have dropped from his senior to super senior season (13.6 ppg and 45.8 3PT% in 2021-22), but he’s still been solid. He’s scored in double figures in ten straight games.

Ryan is having his best offensive season (11.5 ppg) as a senior, and is the team’s best defender. He scored 11 points and dished out a career high eight assists against Louisville, and put up 19 against NC State. Notre Dame’s leading scorer this seaon is Nate Laszewski, the stretch five who has shouldered a ton of responsibility as the team’s only big man who can score. Laszewski scored a career high 29 points and drilled seven threes back on Jan. 21 in the home loss to Boston College.

Mike Brey has only gone seven deep most of this season, and one of his depth pieces will be out for a second straight game. Freshman Ven-Allen Lubin, the only guy who relieves Laszewski of minutes at the five spot, is out with an ankle injury. Freshman Dom Campbell, who has scored six total points this season, played five minutes in relief against Louisville and will likely serve as the seventh man in this one.

Notre Dame makes 9.27 threes per game, which is best in the ACC. They knock them down at a 37.4% clip, which is second most accurate behind Virginia. However, the strong offensive output of this team hasn’t come close to compensating for their struggles on the glass and defensively. The Irish are dead last in the league in both rebounding (30.9 per game) and KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Brey’s group is responsible for one of the craziest statistics I’ve seen this season. Notre Dame is third best at taking care of the ball in the nation (9.10 turnovers per game), but second to LAST in turnovers forced per game (8.95). Needless to say, it is #notgood to be nationally elite at ball security while having a negative turnover margin.

Wake Forest Team Overview:

Record: 14-9 (6-6)

KenPom: 73rd (27th Offensive, 164th Defensive)

Recent Games: L 75-73 vs Duke, L 79-77 vs NC State, L 81-79 at Pitt

Leading scorers:

Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.1 ppg, 6.0 ast, 1.7 stl)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (13.1 ppg, 6.1 reb, 2.8 ast)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (13.0 ppg, 3.3 reb, 40.0 3PT%)

Four games, four straight losses for the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. It’s been a quick turn of the tide, as Steve Forbes’ group had won six of seven before this recent skid. It’s worth noting that all four losses came against teams in the driver seat for at-large bids to the big dance, but Wake Forest couldn’t capitalize on any of the opportunities for a resume-boosting win.

The Deacs lost these games for a handful of different reasons. Lights out shooting from three-point range propelled Virginia (15-34, 44%) and Pittsburgh (18-37, 49%) to strong offensive performances. Against NC State, big DJ Burns dominated the game from the low post, leading the Wolfpack to a comeback road victory. Against Duke on Tuesday, defense wasn’t the team’s downfall — it was a lack of shotmaking. Wake shot an ice cold 4-17 (23.5%) on three-pointers in the second half, which felt like the difference in the game.

Tyree Appleby played one of his best games of the season vs the Blue Devils, scoring 27 and adding four assists. Appleby is so important to this team that he has barely come off of the floor this month. He’s only played less than 38 minutes once since Dec. 20 (Jan. 7 at Louisville).

Damari Monsanto struggled to the tune of 4-16 FGs and 3-12 3PTs in the loss at Duke. He still leads the conference in three-pointers made per game with 3.1, and has scored 21+ in four of his last eight games. Cameron Hildreth averaged 19.8 points per game over the four game win streak earlier this month, but on this losing streak that number has been 13.0. He’ll look to get back on track Saturday. 

As will Andrew Carr, who’s also just had an off shooting night. I’ve been clamoring for Carr to let the three-ball fly more often, but he wasn’t able to find his stroke Tuesday, making only 1-7 from behind the arc. The play of Carr has felt like an increasingly crucial x-factor to the success of the team as the season has progressed. Traditional bigs Matthew Marsh and Davion Bradford have been solid for stretches of this season, but Steve Forbes committed to a small ball unit with Carr playing a lot more of minutes at the five against Duke.

This switch also led to more minutes for versatile freshman Bobi Klintman, who provided a nice lift off the bench in a season high 33 minutes. After not logging more than nine minutes in a single game since Jan. 14, he drilled 2-2 long balls on his way to 9 points.

The main struggle for this team has been its reliance on offensive excellence. Wake is 2nd in the ACC during conference play in effective field goal percentage (53.7%), but is dead last in eFG% allowed (54.3%).

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Prediction:

These teams are quite similar in their builds and strengths. Both squads love to (and are good at) shooting from deep, and both are weak on the defensive end. However, Wake Forest has played at a higher level across the board all season long.

Since the beginning of December, Notre Dame is 4-5 on their home court. A few games back, they lost back to back home games by double digits to Florida State and Boston College. 

I won’t be overreacting to a win over Louisville and a close loss to NC State. I still don't have much confidence in this Notre Dame team. Frankly, they’ve been a disaster this season, and although they can shoot the ball and have some proven commodities, they have zero depth, they can’t rebound, and they’ve given up 84+ poitns in three of their last four.

I also won’t be overreacting to Wake Forest losing four close games to NCAA Tournament teams. The Demon Deacons are clearly the better side here, and Forbes will have this group locked and loaded in this bounce back spot. 

Wake Forest has committed less than 10 turnovers in six straight games, and unlike Notre Dame, they actually are able to force some. I expect the Deacs to get into a rhythm offensively, as Appleby will be a nightmare for the Irish to contain off the dribble. 

Laying three points is a discount here for a much better team. Take the Deacs, as I expect them to win by multiple possessions.

The Pick: Wake Forest -3

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 82 Notre Dame 73

Season prediction record

12-11 ATS

17-6 Straight up

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