Wake Forest vs No. 14 Duke: Preview and Prediction

Can the Demon Deacons pull off the upset at home?

Gameday Info:

Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: ACCN

Spread: Duke -8

Moneyline: Wake Forest +275, Duke -330

Total: 141

READ: Virginia at Miami: ACC Pick of the Day

Duke Team Overview:

Record: 10-2

KenPom Ranking: 14th (18th Off, 22nd Def)

The No. 14 Duke Blue Devils have only lost twice this season. Back on Nov. 16, they fell 69-64 to the defending National Champion No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks. On Nov. 27, Duke was outmatched by now No. 1 Purdue, losing 75-56. Jon Scheyer’s group has now won four straight since the Purdue game, including a nine-point win over Ohio State and a 12-point win over Iowa.

Freshman big man Kyle Filipowski leads the Duke with 14.8 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. His ability to score from the post and also stretch the defense with his shooting has been a key to the team’s early success. The only starter from last year’s group that didn’t depart for the NBA, Jeremy Roach, has provided a nice veteran presence in the backcourt. He’s averaging 13.1 points and 3.5 assists per game.

This Duke team is deeper than they’ve been in years past. It’s a balanced scoring effort, and plenty of guys are capable of making a big impact on any given night. Freshmen Mark Mitchell (9.5 ppg) and Tyrese Proctor (8.2 ppg) have been solid, and senior transfers Ryan Young (7.0 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Jacob Grandison (5.9 ppg, 38.7% 3PTs) are perfect for their roles.

The scary part of this team is that they brought in the top two recruits in the nation in Dereck Lively II (4.4 ppg) and Dariq Whitehead (6.7 ppg), and neither of them have reached their full potential yet. As those guys continue to get healthier and more comfortable, Duke will become even more dangerous.

Key Stat:

Duke is ninth in the nation in offensive rebounds per game with 14.25. According to KenPom they have the No. 1 offensive rebounding percentage in the nation, which is the measure of the possible rebounds gathered by the offense.

READ: ACC Basketball Power Rankings

Wake Forest Team Overview:

Record: 8-4

KenPom Ranking: 92nd (76th offense, 118th defense)

Wake Forest has dropped 23 spots in KenPom since their impressive 78-75 road win at Wisconsin back on Nov. 29. It’s been rough sledding for the Deacs since then. Clemson outscored Wake by 25 in the second half on their way to a 77-57 victory on Dec. 2. A week later, Steve Forbes’ group blew a 20-point lead and lost by two to LSU. On Wednesday, Wake needed a miraculous buzzer beater from Andrew Carr to beat Appalachian State at home by one point. And on Saturday, they were dominated in a raucous road environment by Rutgers, 81-57.

Tyree Appleby (18.0 ppg, 5.1 apg) has been the star of the team so far this season. He’s been dealing with an ankle injury for the past week, but he hasn’t missed time because of it. He moved well against Rutgers, but only scored 10 points and turned the ball over four times in a season low 26 minutes.

Wake’s supporting cast have shown flashes at different times, but only Cameron Hildreth has consistently been a factor. Hildreth (12.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.1 apg) has scored in double figures in eight straight contests. Damari Monsanto (10.4 ppg, 39.7 3PT%) is a bit of a wildcard. He didn't play against App State after failing to meet expectations in practice, but was the lone bright spot against Rutgers, knocking down six threes en route to 22 points. Big men Andrew Carr (10.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Matthew Marsh (6.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg) have had strong performances but haven’t been very consistent on either end.

Daivien Williamson (9.5 ppg, 34.5% FGs) was supposed to be one of the best players on this team, but he missed some time with an injury and has struggled from the field. He played a season low 18 minutes on Saturday, and had as many turnovers as points (three).

Key stat:

Wake Forest is last in the ACC in blocked shots per game, averaging just 2.5. The lack of rim protection on the interior makes the Demon Deacons vulnerable to teams that like to operate in the paint.

Why Duke will cover:

Duke is well rested and without a doubt the more talented side. They also have won eight-straight true road games dating back to last season, which is the longest active streak among all Division I teams. Duke has the ability to dominate on the interior and on the offensive glass, and Wake has an exploitable young frontcourt that was bullied at times by Rutgers. Duke should be able to get stops, run in transition and use their athleticism to exploit a Wake Forest team that hasn’t been able to build off of the Wisconsin win.

Why Wake Forest will cover:

Duke hasn’t played in 10 days, so they might have some early rust to shake off. While they do carry the impressive road win streak, this is their first true road game of the season, and the head coach and roster are very different. Appleby seems to be healthy, and he is able to generate so much offense for this team. Duke only shoots 31.6% from deep, so they usually aren’t able to break open games that way. If Wake can stay disciplined on defense, force some difficult attempts, and secure the first miss, they should be able to find enough offense to keep this one somewhat close.

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The Pick: Duke -8

Rutgers was able to impose their will on Wake with their length, athleticism, and physicality. I see the Demon Deacons struggling in a similar manner on Tuesday night. I think Mark Mitchell is going to be a matchup nightmare for Wake to deal with. He’s two strong down low for Carr and too quick for Marsh. With the students gone on Christmas break, there likely won’t be much of a road environment for Duke to have to deal with either. Too many things have to go right for Wake to cover tomorrow, much less win outright. If the Deacs take care of the ball, make double digit threes, and keep Duke off the offensive glass, they can definitely make this a game. But I’d be more confident in betting that that doesn’t happen.

Score Prediction: Duke 78 Wake Forest 65

Season prediction record

6-5 ATS

8-3 Straight up

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