Wake Forest vs Miami: ACC Tournament Preview and Prediction

Everything you need to know for this Thursday ACC matchup

Game No. 8 in the ACC Tournament is a matchup between the No. 9 seed Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs the No. 1 Miami Hurricanes. 

Gameday Info

Location: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro NC

Tipoff: 12 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN2

Spread: Miami -6

Total: 157

Miami Team Overview:

Record: 24-6, (15-5)

KenPom: 38th (13th Offensive, 122nd Defensive)

Recent Games: W 78-76 vs Pitt, L 85-84 vs Florida State, W 76-70 at Virginia Tech

Leading scorers:

Jr. G Isaiah Wong (15.9 ppg, 4.4 reb, 3.4 ast)
Gr. G Jordan Miller (15.1 ppg, 6.1 reb, 2.6 ast)
So. F Norchad Omier (14.1 ppg, 10.0 reb, 59.0 FG%)

Wake Forest Team Overview:

Record: 18-13 (10-10)

KenPom: 91st (51st Offensive, 153rd Defensive)

Recent Games: L 72-63 at Syracuse L 71-69 vs Boston College, W 66-58 vs Notre Dame

Leading scorers:

Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.8 ppg, 6.3 ast, 1.7 stl)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (12.1 ppg, 5.5 reb, 2.7 ast)
Jr. F Andrew Carr (10.9 ppg 5.8 reb, 0.9 blk)

Why Miami will win:

Miami is the regular season ACC Champion and the best team in the league. I'm so high on Jim Larrañaga's group, that I think they are capable of a Final Four run in the NCAA Tournament. Miami has won eight of their last nine games, with the lone loss coming at the buzzer against Florida State.

The Hurricanes have won three straight against the Demon Deacons, dating back to last season. When these squads faced off a few weeks ago on Feb. 18, Miami forced 19 turnovers on their way to a 96-87 victory. The Hurricanes turned those turnovers into 34 points, and scored 30 points in the paint. ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong exploded for 27, Nijel Pack drilled four three-pointers on his way to 24, and Norchad Omier and Jordan Miller added 17 and 14 respectively. 

Defense has been Wake Forest's main weakness this season, and Miami ranks 13th in the nation in offensive efficiency in KenPom. Within Larrañaga's system, his guys play with tremendous confidence. Just like last season, the Hurricanes have great flow and chemistry offensively. For a Wake team that ranks in the bottom half of the ACC defensively. I expect Wong and co. to have no problems scoring Thursday afternoon. Miami had zero trouble getting the ball in the basket in that matchup, 

Omier has the strength to power through Wake's bigs. Wong, Miller, and Poplar will have no issues getting to their spots offensively with their length and athleticism. Wake has turned the ball over 13 or more times in six straight games, so Miami should definitely be able to once again force Appleby and co. into mistakes and capitalize off of them.

Miami led for the entire second half when these teams last played, and that was when Wake still had Damari Monsanto. Plus, the Deacs shot a tough to duplicate 15-35 (42.9%) from long distance in that loss.

Point is, Miami took care of business fairly easy, albeit on their home floor, when Wake Forest still had their second best player and was scorching hot from deep. It's difficult to imagine the Deacs knocking down threes in that quantity at that efficiency of a clip without Monsanto.

Miami has proven all season long that they are the better team here, and there's plenty of reason to believe they will take care of business on Thursday afternoon.

Why Wake Forest will win:

Wake Forest stumbled into the ACC Tournament losing four of their last five games. But on Wednesday afternoon, Williamson's game winning three-pointer at the end of regulation lifted the Deacs to a 77-74 win over Syracuse. 

Steve Forbes' guys built a 13-point lead with less than ten minutes remaining in the win, but the Orange went on a 17-4 run in three minutes of game time to tie the score at 60. It was an incredibly exciting game, and Wake Forest made enough winning plays late to hold on for the victory.

The story of the game for Wake Forest was freshman Bobi Klintman having his best game of his young career. Klintman scored 17 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, flashing his athleticism and versatile skillset, and building on his 2024 NBA Draft buzz. Klintman needs to continue to play at a very high level for Wake to have a chance in this one. He's improved a lot in the short time since these teams last met, and Miami could struggle with his size and skill. 

Cameron Hildreth was great in the win as well, in one of his best performances of the season, scoring 15 points and delivering an acrobatic clutch bucket late in the game. He's a difficult matchup for Miami, and turned in one of his best games of the season in that matchup. Hildreth scored 14 points, disheed out eight assists, and only committed one turnover. Miami makes it difficult to exploit their lack of size, but the sophomore is the exact type of player that can make them pay. Hildreth has the ability to score one on one down low against their guards, plus he can make good passes if they throw a second defender at him.

Appleby was outstanding with 15 points and 12 assists, but shot 1-7 on three-pointers and missed some easy looks. He's due for some positive regression today, and his ability to take care of the ball will be an x-factor. But with him on the floor, Wake always has a chance.

Wake Forest can win this game if they light it up from long range, take care of the basketball, and force Miami into a bunch of difficult shots. That's a lot to ask out of this group, but Forbes has these guys continuing to believe. Anything can happen in March.

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Prediction:

Following up an incredibly emotional victory, I don't see Wake Forest being able to recapture more magic in the ACC Quarterfinals. While the Deacs came away with a win and looked great during portions of the game, this is still a weak defensive team with offensive flaws as well. 

Of course it's possible that Appleby and co. have the hot hand building off of the rhythm from yesterday, while Miami's shooters are struggling to connect. The Deacs could take better care of the basketball and keep the Hurricanes out of transition, limiting their easy buckets. 

But Miami is such a sharp team. I expect them to bring their A-game, and take care of business against an inferior squad. I'd argue that Miami has four of the best five players on the floor in this game, and while securing a win yesterday was awesome for Wake's program, expecting another win out of this group in the ACC Tournament is a lot to ask.

SIx points is a lot to lay in this one, but I lean that way.

The Pick: Miami -6

Final Score Prediction: Miami 79 Wake Forest 70

Season prediction record

18-14 ATS

22-10 Straight up

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