ACC Football Week 12: Game Previews and Spread Predictions
First and foremost - the Virginia Cavaliers canceled this week’s game against Coastal Carolina in light of the terrible events that occurred last Sunday. Our hearts go out to the families of the three victims, and all those affected by this tragedy.
After the No. 9 Clemson Tigers (7-0 ACC) and No. 13 North Carolina (6-0 ACC) Tar Heels acquired big wins last weekend, this year’s ACC Championship is set. In Week 12, the spotlight moves to the Hurricanes (3-3 ACC) and the Yellow Jackets (3-4 ACC) as the only two conference teams still in bowl game limbo.
Saturday
Louisiana (5-5) at #19 Florida State (7-3)
Spread: Florida State -24.5
Moneyline: Florida State (-2800), Louisiana (+1400)
Total: 52.5
Time/Channel: Noon ET, ESPN3
Florida State (5-3 ACC) hosts a mediocre Louisiana side in their first out of conference matchup in over two months on Saturday.
After being ranked as high as No. 16 in their 13-1 2021 season under current Florida head coach Billy Napier, the Ragin’ Cajuns currently sit at .500 with two games to go. The highlight of an otherwise disappointing season for Louisiana is senior defensive lineman ZiYon Hill-Green, who will look to set the school record for sacks (22) this weekend.
After a 38-3 domination of Syracuse on away turf last Saturday, the Seminoles have defeated their last three conference opponents by a combined 102 points. The offensive surge has been led by a rushing attack that now leads the ACC with roughly 214 yards per game after sophomore back Trey Benson posted 163 yards last week. Florida State has won all five of their matchups against Sun Belt teams since the conference originated in 2001.
The Pick: Louisiana +24.5
Florida State has the best record against the spread in the conference this season with seven covers in ten opportunities. However, I like the Ragin’ Cajuns to buck that trend in this one. Their defense only allows 123 rushing yards per game, which would be good for top five in the ACC. With nothing left to play for in conference and the Florida Cup on the horizon next week, I'm not confident in counting on the Seminoles to blow them out. I expect a fairly easy win, but Louisiana will slow the 'Noles down enough to cover.
Virginia Tech (2-8) at Liberty (8-2)
Spread: Liberty -9.5
Moneyline: Liberty (-365), Virginia Tech (+330)
Total: 46.5
Time/Channel: Noon ET, ESPN+
The Hokies (1-6 ACC) visit the Flames this week after dropping their last seven games, six of them in conference.
Virginia Tech fell on the road to Duke last week 24-7, scoring the first touchdown of the game but failing to score again after. After posting 281 offensive yards, the Hokies continue to hold the worst mark in the ACC with 313 yards per game. Quarterback Grant Wells has likely forfeited his position for the 2023 season after another underwhelming performance in the loss.
Liberty is enjoying yet another successful season under fourth-year head coach Hugh Freeze, despite a 36-33 loss at Connecticut last week. Before being upset last week, Liberty's only loss was vs Wake Forest back in September.
The Pick: Virginia Tech +9.5
Liberty is receiving a jaw-dropping 95% of bets in this matchup, as the public has officially bailed on a Hokies team that has covered only twice in eight games. The one-sided outlook is understandable; the Flames have a far superior offense and nearly knocked off Wake Forest on the road in their only other ACC showdown this season. I fully expect them to win this one, but refuse to side with such an overwhelming favorite. Look for Wells and Virginia Tech to do just enough to secure a cover with nothing to play for this week.
Duke (7-3) at Pittsburgh (6-4)
Spread: Pittsburgh -7
Moneyline: Pittsburgh (-275), Duke (+240)
Total: 49.5
Time/Channel: Noon ET, ACCN
In the first all-ACC game of the weekend, the Blue Devils (4-2 ACC) look to tie their best win total since 2013 with an upset win in Pittsburgh (3-3 ACC).
With an impressive 24-7 victory over Virginia Tech last Saturday, Duke has won their last three conference games. In light of a slowed rushing attack, sophomore signal-caller Riley Leonard took the offensive reins with over 300 total yards and three touchdowns. The Blue Devil defense allowed only seven points in the win, their best performance since Week 0, and is top three in the ACC with 21 turnovers gained.
The Panthers visited and thrashed the last-place Cavaliers 37-7 last week. The Pittsburgh defense capitalized on the most turnover-happy side in the conference by bringing in pick-sixes on the first two plays from scrimmage. 2022 standout junior running back Israel Abanikanda returned from a one-game absence to the tune of 121 yards and one touchdown on the ground.
The Pick (BEST BET OF THE WEEK): Duke +7 (Bonus: Under 49.5)
Both the Panthers and Blue Devils boast top five ACC rushing defenses that allow around 98 and 122 yards per game respectively. While Duke trails only Florida State with 204 rushing yards per game, Pittsburgh has allowed 18 total yards on the ground in their last two wins. Both teams will be forced to turn to their quarterbacks. I like Leonard to out-duel his senior counterpart Kedon Slovis, who has disappointed with as many interceptions as touchdowns this season (6). Look for a possible road upset from the Blue Devils in a low-scoring affair.
Boston College (3-7) at #18 Notre Dame (7-3)
Spread: Notre Dame -21
Moneyline: Notre Dame (-1600), Boston College (+1000)
Total: 44
Time/Channel: 2:30 p.m. ET, NBC
A Boston College (2-5 ACC) side coming off their best win of the season visits the bane of their conference in the No. 18 Fighting Irish.
The Eagles scored a game-winning touchdown with 14 seconds remaining to complete a major 21-20 road upset over the then No. 16 Wolfpack. Freshman quarterback Emmett Morehead posted 330 yards and three touchdowns, including the winner, in the victory. He primarily achieved this through standout wideout Zay Flowers, who brought in 130 yards and two of these scores through the air.
Notre Dame has owned the ACC this season, beating both division champions Clemson and North Carolina by multiple scores. Since a discouraging home loss to Stanford, the Fighting Irish have won four straight while averaging nearly 40 points a game.
The Pick: Boston College +21
The Eagles have discovered something in Morehead, who has totaled exactly 330 yards in each of his first two starts to go along with seven total touchdowns. Notre Dame boasts the best defense among FBS Independents allowing 331.6 yards per game. However, Boston College was able to secure an upset against one of the ACC’s best defenses while posting only 329 yards as a team. While the Fighting Irish look ahead to a massive trip to No. 7 USC on the horizon, Morehead and the Eagles should do enough to cover a massive number without the win this time.
Miami (5-5) at #9 Clemson (9-1)
Spread: Clemson -19.5
Moneyline: Clemson (-1150), Miami (+750)
Total: 48
Time/Channel: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Hurricanes visit the ACC Atlantic champion No. 9 ranked Tigers looking for a massive upset with their bowl game hopes on the line.
The Hurricanes righted the ship last weekend in a 35-14 road win over the Yellow Jackets that saw them take a four possession lead in the fourth quarter. Preseason third-string quarterback Jacurri Brown impressed in the victory, posting three scores through the air on a 74% completion rate. He was helped significantly by a secondary that brought in four interceptions off of two different Georgia Tech quarterbacks.
Clemson confidently bounced back with a 31-16 defeat of the Cardinals in Death Valley last Saturday. The Tigers nearly tripled their rushing total from the loss to Notre Dame by posting 248 yards against an in-form Louisville defense. Signal-caller DJ Uiagalelei cemented his “game-manager” role once again with over 200 total yards and two touchdowns in the win.
The Pick: Clemson -19.5
While Jacurri Brown’s encouraging performance offered some hope to desolate Hurricane fans, it was against the second-worst defense in the conference that allowed more than 400 yards per game. Facing the Tigers’ defense in Death Valley is a whole different conversation for a fresh-faced teenager. Clemson will be motivated to make this one ugly in their last ditch effort to make the CFB playoff and will embarrass a quarterback in his second career start.
#24 NC State (7-3) at Louisville (6-4)
Spread: Louisville -4
Moneyline: Louisville (-188), NC State (+160)
Total: 43.5
Time/Channel: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3
The No. 24 ranked Wolfpack (3-3 ACC) look to complete another successful season under Dave Doeren as they travel to face the Cardinals (3-4 ACC).
NC State is coming off their worst game of the season in the form of a last-second 21-20 heartbreaker loss to Boston College. Preseason third-string quarterback MJ Morris finally looked vulnerable in his third career start with three second-half turnovers in the defeat. Despite the loss, the scary Wolfpack secondary continued to feast with two interceptions as they continue to lead the ACC with 16.
Louisville fell flat in their hardest test of the season last weekend in a 31-16 defeat to Clemson. For the second time this year, the Cardinals lost talented signal-caller Malik Cunningham to injury in the loss, this time to a shoulder sprain. Junior receiver Tyler Hudson stood out despite the result, bringing in 163 yards and 11 catches from two different quarterbacks.
The Pick: NC State +4
While the Louisville defense sits at second in college football with 27 turnovers, they will likely have to match giveaways by backup quarterback Brock Domann facing a hungry NC State cornerback group. Domann did impress with a win in his only start this year, but Morris looked unbeatable before the disappointment last week. This game figures to be a mess, and I’ll side with the offensive unit that has a couple more games of proven success together.
Georgia Tech (4-6) at #13 North Carolina (9-1)
Spread: North Carolina -21.5
Moneyline: North Carolina (-1400), Georgia Tech (+900)
Total: 63.5
Time/Channel: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Georgia Tech (3-4 ACC) needs to pull off the upset against the ACC Coastal champion No. 13 Tar Heels in order to make a bowl game in December.
Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets have returned to earth after a 35-14 embarrassment at home to Miami’s third-string quarterback. Their typically strong turnover margin, which entered last week’s game ranked No. 2 in the country, finished at -4 in the defeat. Backups Zach Pyron and Zach Gibson posted two interceptions each and usual starter Jeff Sims has been ruled out for the rest of the year. Pyron broke his collarbone in this one and is now also out for the year.
In a game many expected them to lose, the Tar Heels won a 34-33 thriller over the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem. Quarterback Drake Maye is looking more and more like a Heisman; he leads college football with 34 passing touchdowns after posting three on Saturday. North Carolina’s offense now ranks top five in the nation with an average of over 500 passing yards a game.
The Pick: Georgia Tech +21.5
While the Tar Heels possibly boast the most dynamic offense in college football, their defense continues to fail them. They allowed Wake Forest to post 490 yards of offense last week, and they still place last in the ACC with around 460 yards allowed per game. Pyron and Gibson doubled Georgia Tech's interception total on the season last week, but I expect Gibson to take better care of the ball Saturday night against this suspect defense. Despite the show-stopping offense, it's challenging to cover a three touchdown spread with a poor defense that fails to generate turnovers. Give me the Yellow Jackets to cover.
Syracuse (6-4) at Wake Forest (6-4)
Spread: Wake Forest -10
Moneyline: Wake Forest (-365), Syracuse (+285)
Total: 56
Time/Channel: 8 p.m. ET, ACCN
Click here to read our staff predictions.
ATS Picks Season Record: 22-21-1 (4-4 last week)
ATS Best Bet Season Record: 3-3-1 (0-1 last week)
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Chase is a contributing writer at Deacons Daily