Opinion: Louisville loss shows that Dave Clawson, Wake Forest have yet to reach the next level

As the football program's national presence grows, so too must Dave Clawson

Wake Forest marched into Louisville on Saturday boasting a No. 10 AP ranking and coming off two dominant wins against Boston College and Army. Facing a Cardinals team that had lost to 2-6 BC only a few weeks earlier, Wake Forest was favored by just three points. The Deacs needed to take care of business against a 4-3 team on the road to prove that they deserved their top-ten ranking. But they didn’t. Instead, they stumbled, and Louisville outplayed them in every facet en route to a 48-21 victory.

In the opening moments of Saturday’s postgame press conference following the loss, Wake head coach Dave Clawson said, “Obviously, I didn’t have us ready to go today.” Of course, you’d expect him to take accountability for a loss like that — that’s what good coaches do.

The troubling part is, Clawson was right. There were a lot of moments where the team didn’t look ready to play. The Louisville front seven decimated the offensive line, forcing eight sacks and 11 TFLs. Sam Hartman threw three picks — two of them came on poor throws, and the other bounced off an open Donavon Greene and into the hands of a Louisville defender. The defense got beat on two trick plays — a double-pitch flea flicker and a wide receiver pass — in addition to giving up a 52-yard rushing touchdown.

The other problem with Saturday’s outcome is that it wasn’t just a loss — it was a meltdown. The third quarter was a complete departure from the identity Dave Clawson and this team have established so far this season. Taking care of the ball has been a strength of the team all year, as the Deacs had coughed it up only five times prior to Saturday. The turnover total jumped from five to 11 in the third frame alone.

If this was the only time in recent memory a meltdown of this caliber at a similar juncture in the season had happened, it could be written off. But it isn’t.

In 2021, the narrative was much the same. Heading into their ninth game of the season against North Carolina, Wake was undefeated and ranked No. 10 in the country — and yet UNC was favored in the game by 2.5 points. The Tar Heels were just 4-4 and the Deacs again needed to handle a team that had floundered all season long to further prove themselves. But Wake couldn’t deliver a finishing blow, squandered an 18-point lead in the second half and lost.

I’ll take it back even further. In 2019, No. 19 Wake Forest sat at 5-0 and faced a 3-2 Louisville at home. Again, Wake needed a win to prove the team’s legitimacy — but they didn’t get it. They let up 62 points, including a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown, and fell to a team that would finish the regular season with five losses.

Like it or not, there’s a theme here. In situations where elite football teams find ways to win in the big moments, Dave Clawson’s teams have failed to rise to the occasion. And not only that, each of these three performances were completely out of character for Clawson-coached football teams.

I want to preface the remainder of this piece with a few other notes. Wake Forest’s season is far from lost — in fact, if they can win the remainder of their games, a path still exists for them to earn that coveted Orange Bowl bid. Second, Dave Clawson is an irrefutably outstanding coach, and the blame for this loss — or any of the others I described — is not solely his to bear. He’s transformed Wake Forest football from an afterthought into a highly respected, consistent ACC contender.

Clawson said several times after the Louisville game that Wake Forest is a good football team. That’s still true as well. What the Deacs have accomplished this season and in recent seasons is truly remarkable and should be commended given where they were even five years ago.

But at the end of the day, competing is not the goal for this program anymore. The players and coaches have said all season long that come championship weekend, they want to be in Charlotte playing for a chance to bring hardware back to Winston-Salem. But even last year, when they achieved that goal, they were dominated up front in a similar fashion to Saturday, and blown out 45-21 by Pittsburgh.

The challenge that Clawson faces, and has yet to conquer, is getting over the next hump, the hump that’s the most daunting. The three games I described above represented opportunities to do that, and all three occasions his teams have, for lack of a better word, collapsed.

Part of this comes from the team’s ability, or lack thereof, to make in-game adjustments when they’re necessary. There are times this season when I think the Deacs have done this extremely well — against Florida State, for example, the defense got knocked around on the first drive and gave up a quick touchdown. After that, they settled in and did an excellent job of containing Jordan Travis and co. the rest of the way.

On Saturday, the offense failed to adjust. Even though Wake led at halftime, the writing was on the wall that something needed to change about the way the line was protecting Sam Hartman. Wake gave up four sacks in the first half — clearly not a sustainable formula to win a football game.

Last week, I asked OC Warren Ruggiero about making game plan adjustments every week. His response, I think, is relevant here.

“We don’t really change anything week to week at all,” Ruggiero said. “Our offense will naturally adjust to whatever they're doing. Our guys just have to execute. Our guys know how to handle different defenses. It’s just a matter of executing on gameday.”

When that adjustment and execution didn’t happen in the third quarter and the skid started, the Deacs looked powerless to stop it. The series of events felt the same every drive. Snap, pocket collapse, turnover, touchdown Louisville. How could the No. 10 team in the nation look so outmatched? How could the No. 10 team in the nation get outscored 35-0 in a single quarter?

Dave Clawson was very vocal leading up to the Louisville game about the fact that his players — and specifically Sam Hartman — deserve more respect. And he’s right. Too many people refuse to really consider Wake Forest as a legitimate threat to win the ACC. Sam Hartman is still a top-tier quarterback, that hasn’t changed. And there’s a real chance that Wake Forest has the last laugh and finishes with another 10-win season.

But even if Wake pulls out the win over Clemson in double overtime, I’m not sure that changes them only being a field goal favorite in the Louisville game. This program has made a massive jump into national relevancy — there’s no doubt about that — but the expectation remains that Wake Forest won’t get over the hump.

There’s a next step to be taken. The goal is to turn two or three-loss seasons into one or zero-loss ones. The bottom line is, the only way for Wake Forest to earn respect from the rest of the world is to leave them no choice. Beat Clemson. Survive that upset scare on the road when your offense doesn’t have its best stuff. Win a conference championship. That’s the next level for Dave Clawson and this program. And until they can reach it, the narrative surrounding them will stay the same.

I think Clawson is one of the best in the country at knowing the strengths and weaknesses of his team and giving his players the best possible chance to succeed. But against Louisville — and in several other critical moments in recent years — he hasn’t done that. Saturday showed that if Wake Forest’s program is to continue to grow and evolve, Dave Clawson still has some growing to do as well.

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