Wake Forest Football vs Duke: Line, Preview and Predictions
The Deacs are set cap off the regular season with a Big Four rivalry matchup against the Duke Blue Devils. Both teams sit at 7-4 and will battle for in-state pride and bowl seeding. Check out our staff's predictions for the outcome along with other important gameday information below.
Gameday info:
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network
Weather: Partly cloudy, high of 61 degrees, low of 43 degrees
Moneyline: Wake Forest (-175), Duke (+140)
Over/under: 66.5
Spread: Wake Forest -3.5 (-107), Duke +3.5 (-114)
Why Wake can cover:
For the first time in a long time, Wake Forest is coming off a win. Against Syracuse, Sam Hartman was brilliant and threw for 331 yards an four TDs without turning the ball over. The run game has also looked much better as of late — Wake has rushed for 382 yards over their past two contests. Also, this is a big four matchup, and Wake has already lost to the two other big four teams in UNC and NC State. Dave Clawson talks all the time about how important these in-state rivalries are, and the Deacs will be looking for redemption on Saturday. Sam Hartman is the more experienced of the two quarterbacks in this one — if the offense can continue their stellar play (37.4 ppg this season) and the defense can make a few plays like they did against Syracuse, the Deacs could win by a touchdown or more.
Why Duke can cover:
Three of Wake Forest’s four losses have come on the road this year. It’s also Duke’s senior day, so expect Mike Elko’s team to come out with a little extra juice on Saturday afternoon. QB Riley Leonard also poses a threat to the Wake Forest defense — he’s rushed for 621 yards and 11 TDs this year and the Deacs have struggled mightily against dual-threat QBs this season. The Duke offense is much improved this year, averaging nearly 30 points per game. If the Blue Devils can ride the momentum of a rowdy senior day crowd and slow down Hartman and the Wake wideouts, they could keep this one close or secure a win.
Essex Thayer:
The Pick: Wake Forest -3.5
Duke is by far the best story in the ACC this season. The turnaround the Blue Devils have undergone in just one season under Mike Elko has been exceptional. And, if Wake Forest had fallen to Syracuse last weekend, I don’t think the Deacs win this game. But, the confidence — the mojo — is back on offense, especially with one person: Sam Hartman. If the redshirt junior can play like he did against the Orange — throwing great passes and avoiding mistakes — there’s no reason Wake Forest should lose. Riley Leonard is a very good quarterback, and should be even better in the coming years, but he’s no Hartman yet. Add in the Deacons’ defense, which has played quite well in some stretches recently, and Wake should cover and get to eight wins.
Wake Forest 38, Duke 27
Ben Conroy:
The Pick: Duke +3.5
Last week was a much-needed resurgence for the Demon Deacons. On their Senior Night, the team came out with a chip on their shoulder and pulled away from a talented Syracuse team. I expect Dave Clawson's squad to build off that performance and show up ready to go in a Big Four matchup. That said, Saturday is also Duke's Senior Day and it should be a rowdy home environment for the Blue Devils. The keys to victory for the Deacs will be making enough plays on defense to slow down dual-threat QB Riley Leonard and continuing the efficient offensive attack from the past two games. In the end, I think the Wake Forest offense (and specifically the connection of Sam Hartman to A.T. Perry) will be too much for Duke to handle. It'll be a close one, but Wake Froest will pull it out by a few points.
Wake Forest 41, Duke 38
Ben Remis:
The Pick: Wake Forest -3.5
Excluding the shortened 2020 season, Wake Forest has beaten at least one of the Big Four North Carolina rivals each season since 2015. With losses to NC State and UNC, this weekend’s matchup with Duke is now the last chance to continue that streak. On paper, this is an even meeting between 7-4 teams– but Duke has just one win this season against teams with a winning record (week three against NC A&T). Against teams with five or more wins on the season, Duke is 2-4. This is the best Blue Devils team that Wake Forest has faced in years, but I believe there is still a gap in quality between the two rivals. Riding high off a fantastic win last Saturday, give me the Demon Deacons to keep the win streak rolling.
Wake Forest 38, Duke 31
Eliot Leadem:
The Pick: Wake Forest -3.5
It’s rivalry week, and even if Duke isn’t a true football rival, this year’s matchup is high stakes for other reasons. Dave Clawson will face off against his former defensive coordinator Mike Elko for the first time, who has quickly brought Duke out of the trenches of the Cutcliffe Era. Both teams are competing for bowl bids each with a 7-4 overall record, though Duke has an edge with a 4-3 conference record. Lastly, it is Sam Hartman’s last regular season game in old gold and black, and I expect a strong performance to secure an eighth win in his final season. Duke has a well-rounded offense this year, ranking third in the ACC in rush yardage and powered by dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard. Their defensive line, too, has only allowed 16 sacks on the season. This one will inevitably be high scoring, but in the end Wake Forest’s receivers will overwhelm the Blue Devils’ secondary.
Wake Forest 49, Duke 40
Sam Rausch:
The Pick: Wake Forest -3.5
Mike Elko has led his squad to their best record since 2018 in just his first season as head coach. Duke and Wake Forest both sit at 7-4, and all four of Duke’s losses have been by just one score. Meanwhile, the Deacs were finally able to break their three-game losing streak with a four touchdown performance from Sam Hartman. I believe we are going to get a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle between the Deacs and Blue Devils. Dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard has proven he is a capable runner and passer and I foresee this game coming down to a game-deciding drive from either Hartman or Leonard. I expect the Deacs to finish the season on a high note, but winning by no more than one score and just barely scraping past the spread.
Wake Forest 42, Duke 38
