Wake Forest season projections updated by ESPN's FPI - Nov. 9
When Wake Forest was winning, these were a lot more fun to write. Once again, the Football Power Index (FPI) has correctly predicted a loss when the sportsbooks had the Deacs as favorites. After predicting Louisville's home upset a week ago, FPI correctly forecasted a home victory for NC State against the higher-ranked Demon Deacons on Saturday.
After a chaotic weekend of college football, FPI has updated their rankings and predictions for the rest of the season. Surprisingly, Wake Forest stays put at 36 in the country, with no change from their ranking last week. This reflects the closeness of the game in Raleigh, FPI’s high valuation of NC State (up three spots to 34), and FPI’s successful prediction of the outcome of the game. While Wake Forest fans have reacted quite negatively to the disappointing loss, the metrics are holding constant.
READ: Wake Forest HC Dave Clawson: "We're still a good football team"
The one big change, however, is how Wake Forest projects to finish the season. FPI’s predicted record for the Deacs has dropped from 8.1-3.9 all the way down to 7.7-4.3. FPI only gives Wake Forest a 17.2% chance of winning each of their remaining games.
FPI’s ACC rankings are quite fascinating to look at. Clemson remains number one (eighth in the country), but Florida State has jumped up to the number two spot (17 overall). The 6-3 Louisville Cardinals sit third (23), followed by UNC, NC State, and Syracuse. At the other end, it’s no surprise to see Boston College last (98 in the country), barely behind Virginia Tech (94), Georgia Tech, (88), and Virginia (76). The ACC now has the least teams in the top 25 of any Power Five conference and the most teams outside the top 50.
Even so, the schedule for Wake Forest does not get any easier going forward. As the Demon Deacons get set to face yet another tough opponent, let's take a look at how the FPI model has shifted for the last few weeks of the 2022 season.
Saturday Nov. 12 - No. 15 NORTH CAROLINA (8-1)
FPI Breakdown:
ACC rank: 4 (5)
National rank: 28 (32)
Projected Record: 10.2-2.8 (9.9-3.1)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 54.2%
Last week: 53.9%
Change: +0.3%
UNC eked out a three-point win against the cellar-dwelling Virginia Cavaliers last Saturday, and FPI knocked them down for it. However, the Tar Heels led for practically the entire game, and are now one of only eleven Power Five teams with less than two losses on the season. Although the percentage has dropped mightily from a few weeks ago, FPI still gives a slight edge to Wake Forest in this Big Four battle. With an impressive five road wins already on the year, Drake Maye and the No. 15 Tar Heels are ready to prove FPI wrong.
READ: Wake Forest Football: Week 10 PFF Grades Roundup
Saturday Nov. 19 - SYRACUSE (6-3)
ACC rank: 6 (4)
National rank: 35 (31)
Projected Record: 7.7-4.3 (8.4-3.6)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 57.6%
Last week: 55.2%
Change: +2.4%
“It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Orange. After losing a close battle against Clemson, Syracuse failed to rebound against Notre Dame.” That’s what I wrote last week about Dino Babers and his Syracuse football team– this week, it’s only gotten worse. The Orange were dominated 19-9 at Pitt over the weekend, recording only 145 total yards on offense. After a 6-0 start, the wheels have completely come off the wagon for Syracuse– with a matchup against Florida State this weekend before traveling to Winston-Salem for an evening matchup on Senior Night, it’s likely the losing streak continues.
READ: Wake Forest Football: UNC Team Overview
Saturday Nov. 26 - AT DUKE (6-3)
ACC rank: 9 (10 last week)
National rank: 56 (57)
Projected Record: 7.6-4.4 (7.4-4.7)
Wake Forest Win Probability: 54.6
Last week: 56.3%
Change: –1.7%
Like the rest of the country, FPI isn’t exactly sure what to make of the Duke Blue Devils. After rising in the rankings during their bye week, Duke dropped a spot after a 38-31 win at Boston College. No matter how good you think this team is, however, there’s no doubt they’ve exceeded all expectations. Bowl eligible in coach Mike Elko’s first season, morale is at an all-time high in Durham. Any other victories this year are icing on the cake. Duke hosts Virginia Tech this weekend before closing the season at Pitt and hosting Wake Forest.
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Ben is a contributing writer for Deacons Daily A '22 Wake Forest graduate, Ben has also written at RedbirdRants, the St. Louis Cardinals FanSided site, for two and a half years.