Wake Forest vs Louisville: Line, Preview and Predictions
No. 10 Wake Forest travels to Louisville this weekend to take on the Cardinals in search of their third ACC win. Check out our staff's predictions for the outcome along with other important gameday information below.
READ: Series History: Wake Forest Football vs Louisville
Gameday info:
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network
Weather: Partly cloudy, low of 42 degrees, high of 69 degrees
Moneyline: Wake Forest (-182), Louisville (+150)
Over/under: 62.5
Spread: Wake Forest -3.5 (-104), Louisville +3.5 (-118)
READ: Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson on Louisville
Why Wake Forest Will Cover: Dave Clawson has his squad playing some of its best football of the season. The Deacs offense is averaging 44 points per game over the last two contests and the defense is allowing just 12.5 points per game over that same span. Wake Forest has only been held below 40 points twice, while Louisville has reached the 40-point mark just once. Wake Forest is the better team in most statistical categories — if the Deacs continue to produce the way they have been, the 4.5-point spread shouldn’t pose any challenges.
Why Louisville Will Cover: Wake has struggled against Louisville in the past few years, dropping two of the last three matchups and winning on a last second field goal in 2021. QB Malik Cunningham is a wild card and torched the Deacs last season, scoring four total touchdowns and throwing for over 300 yards. This is also a Louisville team playing with some confidence after a 24-10 victory over Pitt — factor in a rowdy home crowd and the Cardinals could keep this one close or even pull off the upset.
Staff Predictions
The Pick: Wake Forest -4.5
Wake Forest faced a similar position last season — No. 10 in the country, playing UNC away from home. And they blew an 18-point lead. The key to a comfortable win for Wake Forest is containing quarterback Malik Cunningham and the Cardinals’ inconsistent offense (23.7 ppg). In Louisville’s losses to Syracuse, Florida State and Boston College, Cunningham averaged 74.3 rushing yards. If the Deacs can hold the elusive QB to less than that and force him to beat them through the air, Wake Forest’s ability to put points on the scoreboard (41 ppg) should allow them to coast to victory. Brad Lambert’s squad will rise to the occasion and the Deacs will roll to 7-1.
Wake Forest 38, Louisville 24
READ: Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield on Wake Forest
The Pick: Wake Forest -4.5
Wake’s bout with Louisville marks the beginning of a brutal stretch of games featuring Syracuse, NC State and UNC. The Cardinals’ defense has been red hot lately, totaling 7 turnovers in their last two contest and an additional 7 sacks along the way. However, I won’t believe that anyone can truly shut down these Wake Forest receivers until I see it with my own two eyes. The Cardinals’ DBs played a lot of soft coverage against Pittsburgh — if they do so against Wake it should open things up in the passing game and result in another big day for Sam Hartman. Cunningham will make some plays, but it won’t be enough. Give me the Deacs by two touchdowns.
Wake Forest 42, Louisville 28
READ: Wake Forest Football: DB Chelen Garnes, DL Dion Bergan and OL Spencer Clapp on Louisville
The Pick: Wake Forest -4.5
In Louisville's four victories this season, their opponents have scored 17 points or less. In the Cardinals’ three losses, their opponents have scored 31 points or more. Wake Forest has scored at least 31 points every game, averaging 41.1 points per game. Finally, Louisville is 0-3 against the spread in their losses this season. I believe these trends will continue in Wake’s favor, because the Demon Deacons are not a good matchup for the Cardinals – Wake Forest ranks 29th in the country forcing 1.8 turnovers per game, while Louisville is one of the worst teams taking care of the ball, averaging 1.7 turnovers per game. I expect a competitive battle between two high-powered offenses, but Wake is the more consistent squad. The Deacs should win by a touchdown.
Wake Forest 35, Louisville 28
READ: Opinion: Wake Forest and their players deserve better
The Pick: Wake Forest -4.5
Louisville has always given Wake Forest trouble in their nine-game history, holding a 6-3 advantage. Louisville has momentum in their favor, and the talent to back it up. It took a game winning kick from Nick Sciba to take down the Cardinals 37-34. I expect this game to be another close one till late in the game. The revamped Wake Forest defense is experienced and have seen Cunningham’s game, and I believe they will have a plan to force him to throw from the pocket. Forcing Cunningham to win this game through the air will be critical to a Wake Forest victory. I expect to see a close score at the half, but the Deacs will close this game out and cover the spread in the fourth quarter.
Wake Forest 38, Louisville 27
READ: Louisville Team Overview
The Pick: Wake Forest -4.5
Wake Forest has breached the AP Top 10 for the second year in a row, coming off a decisive win at home against BC. Yet despite the accolades for the smallest Power 5 team to achieve this feat, the Deacs face another challenge on Saturday at Louisville. Many comparisons can be drawn to last year’s road test at UNC, yet I see a fundamental difference. Hartman has played (and won) in Louisville, throwing for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 56-35 win in 2018. It is clear that Louisville is a well-improved team under versatile QB Malik Cunningham since his first season in 2018, but the Deacs are arguably more well-rounded on both offense and defense than ever before. Eyes will be on the Wake Forest defensive line to put pressure on the quarterback and close gaps on designed runs and scrambles. I think the defense gets the job done containing Cunningham on the ground, and I predict a Wake victory by two scores.
Wake Forest 45, Louisville 35
The Pick: Louisville +4.5
The Deacs always seem to struggle against Louisville. Last year’s game came down to the wire and in 2021 the Deacs were blown out. Cunningham (4 total TDs against Wake in 2021) is arguably the best dual-threat quarterback in the ACC, and the Deacons have struggled to stop those kinds of players this season. Against Liberty and Clemson, dual-threats Kaidon Salter and DJ Uiagalelei played incredibly well, and their combined offenses put up an average of 43.5 points per contest. I think the Deacons barely manage to outscore the Cardinals and escape with a win. In their last two matchups, the Deacons and Cardinals have averaged a combined 68 points, so consider this when betting the over/under.
Wake Forest 48, Louisville 46
Spread picks season record:
Ben Remis: 5-2
Eliot Leadem: 5-2
Sam Rausch: 5-2
Essex Thayer: 4-3
Ben Conroy: 4-3
Jack McKenney: 2-5
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