Wake Forest vs NC State: Line, Preview and Predictions
No. 21 Wake Forest travels to Raleigh on Saturday to face off against No. 22 NC State in a classic rivalry matchup. Check out our staff's predictions for the game along with other important gameday information below.
Gameday info:
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network
Weather: Partly cloudy, high of 81 degrees, low of 62 degrees
Moneyline: Wake Forest (-188), NC State (+155)
Over/under: 54.5
Spread: Wake Forest -4.5 (-106), NC State +4.5 (-114)
Why Wake can cover: Dave Clawson’s teams have been great at bouncing back from losses in recent years. Just last season, the Deacs responded to a brutal road loss against UNC with a division clinching 45-42 home victory over No. 16 NC State. The loss to Louisville was an eye-opener, and Wake will be entering this rivalry game with a chip on their shoulder. Factor in a depleted NC State offense and an inexperienced quarterback making his first collegiate start and the Deacs can handle the spread without any trouble.
Why NC State can cover: The bitter defeat from last season will be fresh in the Wolfpack’s minds, and the team will be looking to pounce on a Wake Forest team that was just humbled in Louisville. NC State will rely on their defense to carry them — the Pack have yet to let up more than 30 points in a game. If the defense can shut down Sam Hartman and new starter MJ Morris can pick up where he left off last week (265 yards, 3 TDs), NC State could cover or even come away with the win.
READ: Series History: Wake Forest vs NC State
The Pick: NC State +4.5
This game could very well come down to the QBs — Sam Hartman has a distinct advantage, but gave up six turnovers last week and threw three interceptions in last year’s matchup with the Wolfpack. On the other side, MJ Morris will be making his first collegiate start, but was a revelation in NC State’s comeback win over Virginia Tech. It seems like each year, this game is a battle to the final whistle, and I expect nothing less this time around. Special teams has been a big plus for the Deacs this year — punter Ivan Mora is averaging 42 yards per punt and has nine inside the 20. Kicker Matthew Dennis has hit over 90% of his field goals and is perfect from inside the 50. The past two games have finished 45-42 — just a three-point difference — so who’s to say it won’t happen again?
Wake Forest 45, NC State 42
READ: RB Justice Ellison and Wake Forest look to punch back
The Pick: Wake Forest -4.5
Wake Forest got hit in the mouth against Louisville on Saturday, and I expect Dave Clawson’s squad to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder. This is where the Deacs’ senior experience will come in handy — this year’s group is full of veterans who know what it takes to take down a rival in a hostile environment. I like the offense to bounce back from a sloppy outing last week and execute against a top-tier Wolfpack defense. The Deacs will return to Winston-Salem with a victory and cover- but barely.
Wake Forest 30, NC State 24
The Pick: NC State +4.5
As two ranked ACC opponents clash on Saturday, I expect the Deacs to win by a narrow margin. NC State's has the No. 17 scoring defense in the country, and this may threaten the Deacs’ ability to put points on the board on offense. Coming off their worst game of the season, Wake Forest can’t afford another sloppy performance. NC State Quarterback MJ Morris had a breakout game against Virginia Tech last week, and the true freshman will need to replicate this success Saturday. Expect a competitive matchup, but look for Hartman and the Wake offense to deliver late in the game.
Wake Forest 34, NC State 31
READ: NC State coach Dave Doeren on Wake Forest
The Pick: Wake Forest -4.5
Wake Forest hasn’t lost back-to-back games since September of 2020, when the Deacs fell 45-42 to the North Carolina State Wolfpack. Carter-Finley Stadium isn’t an easy place to play, and Wake has only managed to win there once since 2008. This Big Four matchup has featured star quarterbacks in previous years, including John Wolford and Ryan Finley before Sam Hartman and Devin Leary took the helm. The quarterback situation on Saturday will be unique, though. Sam Hartman is coming off a tough loss against Louisville, where he threw 3 interceptions and lost 3 fumbles. Freshman QB MJ Morris, on the other hand, is coming off his best career performance, throwing for 3 touchdowns in a narrow win over Virginia Tech. Simply put, I don’t expect Dave Clawson’s team to lose two straight again, and protecting the quarterback will be the simple key to avoid another late game collapse.
Wake Forest 35, NC State 17
The Pick: NC State +4.5
On the 116th meeting between NC State vs Wake Forest, there really isn’t much to separate these two teams. In one corner, you have a great defense, bolstered by a rowdy home crowd that wants nothing more than revenge against a bitter rival. In the other, a top-of-the-line offense, reeling from their worst performance of the season. In this clash of opposite strengths, I believe the key difference is at quarterback. It may not be pretty, but in a rebound effort from a week ago, Sam Hartman will do enough to win this game against the freshman Wolfpack QB MJ Morris. I’ll take NC State to cover, but the Demon Deacons to escape with a narrow victory.
Wake Forest 20, NC State 17
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