ESPN's FPI Predicts the Rest of Wake Forest's Season
There are a lot of metrics that attempt to predict outcomes and likelihoods in college football. While Wake Forest is on a bye week at the halfway point of the season, now seems like a good time to check them out.
First, let’s look at the Football Power Index (FPI). For information on how the FPI works, you can read this lengthy explanation. We’ll just take a look at what the FPI says about the 2022 Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
According to the FPI, the Deacs are currently the second-best team in the ACC and 24th best team in the country.
Heading into the bye week, FPI projects Wake Forest to finish the season 8.8-3.2. It’s giving the Deacs a 4.9% chance of finishing the year with just the one loss, but also a 99% chance of winning six games and reaching a seventh-straight bowl game. FPI believes there is still a 1.1% chance Wake wins the Atlantic division, a 0.7% chance of winning the conference and a 0.1% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
READ: 2022-23 ACC Basketball Preview - Boston College Eagles
Let’s take a look at the FPI rankings and predictions for each opponent remaining on Wake’s schedule:
Saturday Oct. 22 - BOSTON COLLEGE (2-4)
BC FPI Breakdown:
ACC Rank: 13th
National Rank: 95
Projected Record: 3.5-8.5
FPI Matchup Predictor: 91.2% Wake Forest victory
Nothing surprising here. Wake Forest is expected to take care of business easily after the bye against a struggling Boston College squad.
Saturday Oct. 29 - AT LOUISVILLE (3-3)
Louisville FPI Breakdown:
ACC Rank: 8
National Rank: 40
Projected Record: 5.7-6.3
FPI Matchup Predictor: 50.9 % Louisville victory
Highly doubtful that Louisvlle is actually favored in this game by the oddsmakers. But FPI likes Louisville at home – for the moment. We’ll see how this develops over the next two weeks.
READ: Wake Forest Football - Key Midseason Stats
Saturday Nov. 5 - AT NC STATE (5-1)
NC State FPI Breakdown:
ACC Rank: 3
National Rank: 26
Projected Record: 8.8-3.2
FPI Matchup Predictor: 58.6% NC State victory
The Wolfpack are one of the best teams in the conference. Quarterback Devin Leary’s health status would obviously affect their chances. This will likely be Wake’s most difficult game to win across the rest of the season.
Saturday Nov. 12 - NORTH CAROLINA (5-1)
North Carolina FPI Breakdown:
ACC Rank: 6
National Rank: 35
Projected Record: 8.9-3.8
FPI Matchup Predictor: 63.6% Wake Forest victory
This time, the Deacs get the home-field boost. With a rollercoaster of a year so far, who knows what UNC will look like this late in the season. Drake Maye has been elite though - and this game has major shootout potential.
Saturday Nov. 19 - SYRACUSE (5-0)
Syracuse FPI Breakdown:
ACC Rank: 5
National Rank: 32
Projected Record: 8.4-3.7
FPI Matchup Predictor: 63.1% Wake Forest victory
FPI is still skeptical of the Orange’s early season success. But if Cuse can keep things rolling, there will be an additional ranked matchup to see at Truist Field.
READ: Takeaways From Wake Forest Basketball Open Practice Round 2
Saturday Nov. 26 - AT DUKE (4-2)
Duke FPI Breakdown:
ACC Rank: 10
National: 68
Projected Record: 6.6-5.5
FPI Matchup Predictor: 69.6% Wake Forest victory
FPI believes Wake should close out the year with a victory over their in-state rival. Mike Elko’s squad got off to a nice start this season, and Duke is clearly better than year’s past. Their next two games, vs UNC and at Miami, will be very telling.
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Ben is a contributing writer for Deacons Daily A '22 Wake Forest graduate, Ben has also written at RedbirdRants, the St. Louis Cardinals FanSided site, for two and a half years.