One Draft Expert's Honest Opinion of Penix's Pros and Cons
Daniel Jeremiah has ample football credentials. He's a former starting quarterback for both Northeastern Louisiana and Appalachian State who became an NFL scout for the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles, and he's now the latest thing in draft analysis.
Mel Kiper Jr. is yesterday's tired old guru. Jeremiah brings a fresher and far more detailed approach to grading college football talent for NFL Network that has proven overly popular among the masses — last week, he invited media members to join him on a teleconference call for a couple of hours and nearly 200 dialed in.
As a former QB with a scouting track record, Jeremiah seemed like the best guy to ask about former University of Washington signal-caller Michael Penix Jr., who appears to be a confounding draft pick this coming April.
Most people are reluctant to project Penix as a first-rounder, even after he wowed the nation with his sensational New Year's Day performance in the Sugar Bowl against Texas and nearly won the Heisman Trophy.
Jeremiah ranks Penix as the 40th player in his top 50 draft prospects, which leaves the lefty ... well, eight slots shy of the opening round.
This particular talent scout similarly came away impressed with Penix's 29-for-38, 430-yard, 3-touchdown passing effort in the UW's 37-31 victory over the Longhorns in New Orleans.
"Look, the semifinal game was awesome," Jeremiah said, breaking it down. "He moved around better in the pocket than I had seen him previously, which was good to see. I mean, he threw some seeds in that game; just back-foot missiles where he just hangs on his back foot and the ball just jumps out of his hand.
"But I think to me, he's outstanding on the over-the-top kind of those touch throws down the field — the deep ball throw is beautiful. He can drive the ball, especially to the perimeter."
OK, then what's the issue with Penix, whereas Jeremiah ranks USC's Caleb Williams (1), North Carolina's Drake Maye (4), LSU's Jayden Daniels (5), Oregon's Bo Nix (23) and even Michigan's J.J. McCarthy (27) significantly higher than him in his list of top 50 draft prospects?
Didn't Penix outplay Williams this past season in their head-to-head match-up in Los Angeles and Nix three times over for two seasons, on home, away and neutral sites, which should count for something?
In Jeremiah's mind, Penix's strong suit — that deep ball — disappeared completely against Michigan, against a well-designed and overly aggressive defense, in the CFP title game in Houston.
"I thought that the thing that showed up in the championship game, No. 1, they hit the stuffing out of it," Jeremiah said of the downfield throw. "They got to him. I thought that kind of rattled him a little bit from that standpoint. I didn't think the pocket movement was as good as we saw in the previous game."
The draft expert went on to say that Penix hasn't shown yet he can make a shorter up-and-down throw over the middle of the defense, which is a much more delicate touch pass.
Jeremiah remains a fan of Penix's overall arm strength, which comes off a whippy three-quarters delivery, one in which the former Husky QB can effortlessly deliver the ball for up to 55 yards downfield. He said a lot of the quarterback's durability questions were answered with two pain-free seasons at Washington.
In his final assessment, the talent sleuth thinks Penix will best succeed in the NFL if he goes to a team that uses him more as a complement piece rather than a passing centerpiece.
"Hey, I would want an offense with a lot of drive throws," Jeremiah said. "You can get under center, play action, driving comebacks, pushing the ball vertically down the field. I think he goes to a team with a really good run game. I think off of play action in a vertical passing game, it's probably going to be his best fit."
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