The ESPN BPI Considers Pitt a Massive Favorite Over WVU in the Backyard Brawl

West Virginia is expected to take one on the chin, according to the computers.

West Virginia University guard Joseph Yesufu / Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

For the first time in a long time, the Pitt Panthers are entering a game against the West Virginia Mountaineers with a full roster and full-time head coach as the favorite.

The Panthers caught a break last year in the Backyard Brawl as WVU's roster was raveled with injuries, ineligibility issues, and an interim head coach. It marked Pitt's first win in the rivalry since 2012, snapping a six-game losing streak.

This will be both teams' first true test of the season, giving them a good sense of what they have to work with and what kind of year each team is capable of having. Pitt hasn't been contested in any of their first three games of the season, picking up blowout wins over Radford, Murray State, and Gardner-Webb.

Meanwhile, West Virginia took care of business against Robert Morris and then held off a second half comeback attempt by a decent UMass team.

What the ESPN BPI says

According to the ESPN BPI (Basketball Power Index) matchup predictor, West Virginia has just a 22.4% chance of leaving the Steel City with a win. Pitt has a 77.6% chance of picking up their second straight win over the Mountaineers.

Even though Pitt is coming off a 22-win season and West Virginia threw its roster and coaching staff together in a matter of months over the spring/summer, I feel like the Mountaineers should be getting a little more respect here.

Do they win the game? I don't know. Should they be favored? Probably not. But somewhere in the low 40s percentage range would have made more sense to me.

This is the best three-point shooting team Pitt has seen thus far, and by a mile. West Virginia has several threats on the perimeter, such as Javon Small, Tucker DeVries, Jonathan Powell, KJ Tenner, and even the big man, Amani Hansberry.

The Mountaineers may have some trouble on the glass and in the paint battle, but if they shoot it well, they should have a chance to hang in and possibly win. That's why I feel like this percentage is extremely low.

Darian DeVries' scout of Pitt

“They’re very balanced. I think that’s what I like most about their team. They present a lot of problems and different ways they can come at you and challenge your defense. They just really know how to play with each other and understand each other and what they’re trying to get. Early in the year, they’ve done a nice job of looking like they’ve played together as a group a long time even though they added a few pieces as well. Defensively, they’re very stingy and very connected.”

West Virginia and Pitt will get the action started at 8 p.m. EST from the Peterson Events Center. The game will be available to stream live on the ACC Network or ESPN+.

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