The ESPN BPI Predictor Views West Virginia vs. Louisville as a Toss-Up Game

West Virginia is looking to punch its ticket to the championship of the Battle 4 Atlantis.

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

For those who filled out a Battle 4 Atlantis bracket, I feel for you.

By now, you most likely threw that thing in the shredder after seeing how the first two games of the event went with Louisville surprisingly defeating No. 14 Indiana and West Virginia following that up by pulling off the stunning upset of No. 3 Gonzaga.

Today, the two will meet in the semifinal round with a right to the championship game on the line. This will be the first meeting between the former Big East foes since 2012, a game the Cardinals won 77-74. Louisville holds the edge in the all-time series 9-4.

What the ESPN BPI says about the matchup

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), West Virginia has a 42.9% chance to move on to the championship game while Louisville has a 57.1% chance.

The Mountaineers pulled off one of the biggest upsets in college basketball so far this season by taking down No. 3 Gonzaga in overtime. WVU surprisingly out-rebounded the Zags by six and were even in terms of offensive rebounds. Javon Small was the X-factor in the game, posting a season-high 31 points in the victory. Big man Amani Hansberry had his breakout game, finishing the day with 19 points, eight rebounds, three assists, one steal, and a block.

Louisville's defense was the difference in the second half in their blowout win over No. 14 Indiana. They forced 23 turnovers on the day and held the Hoosier to 33.3% shooting from the field. While the Cards connected on ten triples, much of their success came from the interior, scoring 48 points in the paint. Forward Noah Waterman and guard Chucky Hepburn tied for the team lead with 16 points.

Is the BPI right?

For the first time in a long time, I actually believe the BPI is spot on here with the percentages it handed out.

West Virginia's win over No. 3 Gonzaga was certainly impressive, but the fact that they only played essentially a seven-man rotation for much of the game, one that went to overtime, means they could be at a slight disadvantage this afternoon. Louisville didn't have to strain for more than 25 minutes or so before they were able to get out to a comfortable lead and cruise the rest of the way.

Even if WVU's game didn't go to overtime, they still exerted a ton of energy trying to limit Gonzaga's highly potent offensive attack. Four Mountaineers played 37 minutes or more, so tired legs should be expected.

West Virginia and Louisville will tip things off at 12 p.m. EST on ESPN. The winner will move on to the championship game tomorrow to face the winner of Oklahoma/Arizona.

MORE STORIES FROM WEST VIRGINIA ON SI

Spread & Over/Under Predictions for WVU vs. Louisville

How to Watch & Listen to West Virginia vs. Louisville

West Virginia to Face Louisville in Semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis on Thanksgiving Day

Mountaineer Postgame Show: WVU 86, Gonzaga 78