No Chance for a WVU Upset of Houston? The ESPN BPI Has Been Way Off Before

Can the Mountaineers spring another major upset?
Jan 21, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Jonathan Powell (11) celebrates a three point basket during the first half against the Arizona State Sun Devils at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images
Jan 21, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Jonathan Powell (11) celebrates a three point basket during the first half against the Arizona State Sun Devils at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images / Ben Queen-Imagn Images

It's another big game inside the WVU Coliseum on Wednesday night as the Mountaineers meet up with No. 6 Houston. The Cougars protected their home floor in the first matchup, and now, it's West Virginia's turn to do the same.

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor, West Virginia has just a 14.9% chance of pulling off the upset. Meanwhile, Houston has an 85.1% chance to remain unbeaten in Big 12 play.

While Houston should be the presumed heavy favorite, I'm a little shocked that the computers aren't paying West Virginia a little bit of respect here, especially with the game taking place in Morgantown. The WVU Coliseum has been a dangerous place for top-10 teams over the years, and this is a group that has already defeated three top-10 teams this season.

West Virginia's recent games

West Virginia University guard KJ Tenner
West Virginia University guard KJ Tenner / Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

Look, last week is one that Darian DeVries, the team, and all West Virginia fans would love to forget about forever. Plain and simple. But for the team, they have to learn from that tape and make adjustments after figuring out what went wrong in a pair of very winnable games versus Arizona State and Kansas State. One of the biggest issues for the Mountaineers is that the offense has dried up considerably. In the two losses combined, WVU shot a dreadful 8-for-50 from three-point range. That's a recipe for disaster.

Houston's recent games

Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Nov 24, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard LJ Cryer (4) dribbles against the Montana Grizzlies in the second half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Cougars had quite the two games last week. One was over seven minutes into the game, while the other was drama-filled from start to finish. Houston made easy work of Utah, defeating the Utes 70-36, limiting them to 30.2% shooting from the floor and forcing 26 turnovers. They needed double overtime to take down Kansas in the Phog, but they got the job done to remain a perfect 8-0 in league play.

MORE STORIES FROM WEST VIRGINIA ON SI

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Quick Hits: Houston's Defense, Struggles from Three, Slow Starts + More

West Virginia Not Knocked for Rough Week in Latest ESPN Bracketology Projection


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Schuyler Callihan
SCHUYLER CALLIHAN

Publisher of Mountaineers Now on FanNation/Sports Illustrated. Lead recruiting expert and co-host of Between the Eers, Walk Thru GameDay Show, Mountaineers Now Postgame Show, and In the Gun Podcast.