Spread & Over/Under Predictions for WVU vs. Gonzaga

It's a large spread, but can West Virginia do more than cover against Gonzaga?

West Virginia University guard Javon Small. / Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

The Battle 4 Atlantis is set to get underway this afternoon in the Bahamas and for the West Virginia Mountaineers, they're about to find out what kind of team they have early on in the season thanks to an opening-round clash with No. 3 Gonzaga.

Here are my picks for today's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Gonzaga -15.5

4-star play on Gonzaga (-15.5): While I do think West Virginia will be competitive for the better part of this game, the Zags just have too much offensive firepower and will create separation late in the second half to cover the large spread.

Gonzaga has four players - Khalif Battle, Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, and Dusty Stromer - who are all shooting 43% or better from beyond the three-point line. In their season-opener against Baylor, the Zags went 13-for-31 from deep, with five different guys reaching double digits. That's a big headache to deal with.

The Mountaineers have the top-end talent to make shots and keep pace, assuming Javon Small and Tucker DeVries are on their game. The problem is the Mountaineers lack scoring depth. They don't really have a reliable third or fourth option at the moment, so unless Gonzaga is just ice cold, I struggle to find a way where the Bulldogs don't cover.

Over/Under: 155.5

1-star on the under: I'm pretty conflicted on the total in this game, mainly because I'm unsure of which Mountaineer offense we will see. If they lack ball movement and take bad shots like they did in the Backyard Brawl, then we would need Gonzaga to carry most of the weight, although they're capable. They did put up 101 on Baylor, for what it's worth.

I don't expect West Virginia to look as poor as they did against Pitt offensively, primarily because I believe they ironed some of those issues out against Iona. Yes, it's an inferior opponent, but you can still find answers, i.e., Javon Small being more aggressive with the basketball.

That being said, I always tend to lean to the under in the first games of these MTEs because it takes some time to get adjusted to the sight lines and environment. A slow-ish start for West Virginia helps this game stay under the number.

Record this season:

ATS: 2-2 (50%)
O/U: 3-1 (75%)
Overall: 5-3 (62.5%)

Odds Disclaimer

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

MORE STORIES FROM WEST VIRGINIA ON SI

Quick Hits: Battle 4 Atlantis Preview, Playing as the Underdog + More

Former WVU Star Miles McBride Reaches 1,000 Career Points in the NBA

You're Telling Me There's a Chance? WVU Still Has a Path to Big 12 Title Game

Big 12 Score Predictions for the Final Week of the Regular Season