Spread & Over/Under Predictions for WVU vs. Pitt

The Mountaineers are big underdogs in this year's Backyard Brawl. Did Vegas give them too many points?

West Virginia University basketball / Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

The 191st edition of the Backyard Brawl will take place tonight in Pittsburgh, featuring a pair of undefeated teams early in the season.

West Virginia won six straight in the series before seeing that winning streak come to an end last year in Morgantown. Only one player from that team, Ofri Naveh, returns and he'll be taking a redshirt this season.

Here are my picks for tonight's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Pitt -7.5

1-star play on West Virginia (+7.5): Although the Mountaineers are on the road here, they'll have a strong showing of support, as they always do. This will have more of a neutral court feel to it than anything they will see on the road in Big 12 play. Because of that alone, I think they can keep this one interesting and within reach.

All of the pressure in this game is on Pitt. They're the more established team, as they're in year seven under Jeff Capel. After missing out on the NCAA Tournament last year, they know how valuable every win is. They can't afford to take this West Virginia team lightly, and they know it.

The offensive firepower is there for West Virginia, just like the defensive tenacity. They may not have the size to compete with Pitt, but they'll do all of the dirty work to make up for it. This feels like a game where Toby Okani and Sencire Harris thrive.

In a rivalry game, 7.5 feels like too many points. Take West Virginia.

Over/Under: 148.5

1-star play on the under: If I didn't give a play for every single side and total, I would sit this one out. My final score prediction lands a half a point under the current mark at 148, so I don't really have an opinion on it.

That being said, both teams are capable of playing really good defense. They've shown that in spurts against lesser competition, as Pitt is allowing 62.6 points per game through three games. The Mountaineers are allowing 64 per game.

As mentioned, I see this game playing into the 70s. There's a stronger chance of one or possibly both of these teams failing to hit 70 than both burning the nets by knocking down so many shots. We'll have the smallest of leans to the under for this year's Backyard Brawl.

Record this season:

ATS: 1-1 (50%)
O/U: 1-1 (50%)
Overall: 2-2 (50%)

Odds Disclaimer

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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