The Magic Number: How Many Wins Does WVU Need to Make the NCAA Tournament?

A look at how much work needs to be done for the Mountaineers to go dancing.

Feb 11, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers forward Amani Hansberry (13) celebrates during the first half against the Brigham Young Cougars at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images / Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Early on in Big 12 play, West Virginia looked like they were well on their way to making the NCAA Tournament after winning their first two games at Kansas and against Oklahoma State. Since then, the Mountaineers are just 4-7 and have some crushing losses Arizona State, TCU, and of course, last night's defeat to BYU.

Entering Tuesday's game, WVU was a projected No. 9 seed in the latest ESPN bracketology projection but firmly in the field. I don't want to speak for Joe Lunardi here, but I think it's safe to say that the Mountaineers are officially in danger of missing out.

With seven games remaining in the regular season, West Virginia has to lock in and protect home court while finding a way to come out victorious on the road a time or two.

So, what is the magic number for the Mountaineers to make the NCAA Tournament?

According to TeamRankings.com, reaching 19 wins would give them a 77.8% chance of punching their ticket. Getting to 18 produces a 33.8% chance, while 17 or fewer is less than 1%. Catching fire and winning 20+? 94.3% and increasing with each win.

Their computers project the Mountaineers finishing the regular season with an 18-13 record, meaning they would need to win at least one game in the Big 12 tournament to solidify their resume.

The road ahead

2/15 at Baylor

2/19 vs. Cincinnati

2/22 at Texas Tech

2/25 vs. TCU

3/1 at BYU

3/4 at Utah

3/8 vs. UCF

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