The Recipe for West Virginia to Cook Up an Upset of No. 10 Houston
It's a week full of opportunity for the West Virginia Mountaineers as they'll tangle with No. 10 Houston and No. 2 Iowa State this week. Up first, a trip to Fertitta Center to take on the Cougars.
How can the Mountaineers pull off the upset? Is it possible? I found three things in Houston's losses that could help West Virginia get the W.
It's all about how you finish
If we're being honest, this is the case every night, but Houston has allowed a lot of points in the second half of the games they've lost. How many, to be exact? 46 to Auburn, 44 to Alabama, and 40 to San Diego State. Against high majors, West Virginia has scored 40 or more points in the second half three times this season. The problem? All three were when they had Tucker DeVries, who will likely be out again on Wednesday.
One little note here to add to this is that the Cougars led at the half in all three of their losses. So, if West Virginia is trailing at the break, it's not time to panic just yet. The key is to keep the game within reach. Auburn and San Diego State trailed by five, while Alabama was down by two.
Does West Virginia have the firepower to put up 40 in the second half? Yes. But it's going to be a challenge with the lack of depth and starters having tired legs against this vaunted defense. We've seen WVU's offense dry up in the second half in each of their four conference games. It can't happen in Houston.
Free points
You're not going to create a bunch of points off of turnovers because Houston does a really good job of taking care of the basketball. To make up for it though, the Mountaineers can be aggressive in pressuring the rim to get to the free-throw line. Auburn only attempted 19 free throws in their win over Houston, but get this...Alabama had 41 attempts and San Diego State had 27.
As previously mentioned, the Cougars have an air-tight defense, so getting open shots will be few and far between. Putting the ball on the deck and going right to the rim can be the best approach against UH, especially because they'll do everything they can to keep the ball out of the hoop. They'll be grabbing, reaching, and playing physically underneath. Getting 25+ free throw attempts will go a long way.
The aggressive approach worked out for San Diego State but also for Auburn, who recorded 36 paint points.
Beat Houston at their own game
The Cougars take so much pride in their defense, but so does Darian DeVries. The effort on the defensive end of the floor has been the reason why the Mountaineers are where they are through the first 15 games.
I wanted to look back at some of the themes in each of West Virginia's big wins this season, but that wouldn't be a good piece of data, considering DeVries was a part of the wins over Gonzaga and Arizona. I did, however, find something from the win over Kansas that they can apply to this contest vs. UH, though.
WVU definitely didn't get to the free throw line nearly enough in that one, nor did they score 40 in the second half. But they did throw the clamps down on Kansas' offense. You may see the 41 points the Jayhawks scored in the second half and think, how is that elite defense? Well, for full transparency, 15 of those points came from the free-throw line.
For the game, Kansas shot just 38% from the field and 25% from three-point range. The Cougs will knock down their shots from deep, but if the Mountaineers can hold them to a sub-40% shooting night from the field, they'll have a strong chance to pull off the upset. They shot just 36.9& against Alabama and 37.1% against San Diego State.
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