What Are WVU's Chances to Upset No. 3 Gonzaga? The ESPN BPI Says Slim to None

West Virginia enters this matchup with Gonzaga as massive underdogs.

West Virginia University guard Sincere Harris. / Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

First-year West Virginia head coach Darian DeVries has an opportunity to shock the world in just the fifth game of his tenure when the Mountaineers take the floor Tuesday afternoon against the third-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs in the opening round of the Battle 4 Atlantis.

As we do for each of the Mountaineers' big games, it's time to take a look at what the computers are saying about West Virginia's chances to come out victorious.

What the ESPN BPI says about West Virginia vs. Gonzaga

The ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor is giving West Virginia a measly 14.1% chance to pull off the upset while Gonzaga has an 85.9% to remain unbeaten and hold off the Mountaineers.

West Virginia has done a fine job of taking care of business in the games they should roll in, beating Robert Morris and Iona handily while holding off a scrappy UMass team. Their only true challenge to this point in the season, they failed. For whatever reason, WVU just looked completely out of sync offensively against Pitt, resulting in a 24-point loss.

Gonzaga, on the other hand, is ripping right through its competition, winning by an average of 32.2 points per game. And that schedule isn't anything to scoff at. They've played Baylor, Arizona State, and San Diego State in the early going and have handled those tests extremely well.

Is West Virginia getting enough love?

To be completely forthright, I'm stunned that West Virginia is even in double digits here. Look, I believe Darian DeVries is going to be a really good head coach for the Mountaineers, but it's year one. This isn't supposed to be a year full of expectations, and competing with the No. 3 team in the country in game five is a tall task, let alone beating them.

Not that 14.1% is some crazy percentage, but I'd put this more at a 3-5% chance of happening. Again, this is not a slight to WVU or DeVries, and instead, more of an indication of how talented this Gonzaga team is.

Had the Mountaineers put up a better fight against Pitt in the Backyard Brawl, I might think differently of the percentage, but probably not much. Gonzaga beating Baylor like a drum is pretty alarming. The fact they beat a team as talented as the Bears has to be a bit of an eyebrow-riser for West Virginia, a group that's still trying to figure things out.

Gonzaga may stub their toe a time or two at some point this season, but it won't be this early on against a team in a rebuild.

The Mountaineers and Bulldogs will throw the ball up in the air at approximately 2:30 p.m. EST. The action will be televised on ESPN.

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