WVU Basketball - Time to Panic?

The West Virginia Mountaineers have lost three consecutive conference games. Is it time to panic?

The West Virginia Mountaineers have seen mixed results throughout the season. They boast a 13-5 record without any bad losses. Their worst loss came against Marquette on a neutral site with all of their other losses being to teams ranked inside of KenPom’s top-20 in adjusted efficiency margin. The bigger concern is that West Virginia holds only one win - Connecticut - against a team inside of the top-40. They do possess a road win against UAB, a neutral-site win against Clemson, and home wins against Kansas State and Oklahoma State, though.

The Mountaineers have struggled in conference play, recording a 2-4 record through six Big 12 games. After losing each of their last three games, is it time for West Virginia to panic?

Relative Expectations

West Virginia was in somewhat of an odd position entering the season. They weren’t expected to compete for a Big 12 title after losing several players. They still featured plenty of solid options, including bringing in transfers to immediately help. Ultimately, West Virginia was projected to finish sixth in the Big 12 by both ESPN and CBS.

They had expectations of potentially making March Madness, as the Big 12 featured seven teams in the tournament last season. Although there is no exact number of teams that will make it from any given conference, West Virginia’s pre-season projection gave hopes of potentially making the Big Dance.

In terms of pre-season expectations, the Mountaineers aren’t that far behind what was projected. They’re currently seventh in the Big 12 and only 0.5 games away from sixth.

The bigger concern at this point is that they’re ranked 52nd in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency, which ranks eighth in the league ahead of only Kansas State, who ranks 54th. West Virginia also hasn’t been competitive in games against higher-ranked Big 12 opponents.

They own losses to Texas, Kansas, Baylor, and Texas Tech, which all rank in the top-20 in adjusted efficiency this season. They’re losing those games by an average of 15.8 points per game. They also failed to hit the 70-point mark in any of those games.

The Mountaineers are projected to win only 3 of their final 13 games via KenPom. It isn’t out of the question that they can hit their pre-season expectations, but they’ll need someone to step up as their go-to guy.

Go-to Guy

Taz Sherman and Jalen Bridges were the two players that were expected to step up this season. They’ve both shown flashes, but it’s impossible to call either player a go-to option late in games at this point.

Sherman is the closest player West Virginia has in terms of ability to take over a game. He’s been their best scorer, and he’s flashed tremendous scoring potential at times this season. With that being said, he’s also disappeared and struggled in big games. However, some of that could be due to his bout with COVID-19. Sherman posted only 5 points in 30 minutes in a loss to Kansas. He scored 18 points against Baylor, but he shot only 31.3% from the field in that game. Sherman dropped 21 points in the Mountaineers’ last loss against Texas Tech, and he was far from the problem with their offense. With that being said, he contributed only 2 assists and 1 steal while turning the ball over 6 times. Even in their good wins, Sherman’s struggled with different aspects of his game, and he’ll need to continue to progress to be able to take over games in conference play.

Bridges owns West Virginia’s highest offensive rating, but he’s struggled to find volume in games. He’s posted 18+ points in only 3 of his 18 games this season. He boasts tremendous ability, scoring 18 against Pittsburgh and Texas while shooting 65% from the field in those games. He also posted 22 against Oklahoma State because of his ability to get to the line. Bridges’ inconsistent role and aggression keep him from being able to take over the offense in important games, even though he’s clearly one of their top options.

It’s relatively clear that Sherman is the current go-to guy with the game on the line or when they need a basket. The problem is he’s been extremely inefficient, and that isn’t the best way to get back into the game. West Virginia needs one or multiple players to step up in tough situations if they want to turn around their conference play.

Conclusion

This is one of the more difficult situations in the NCAA. It isn’t quite time to panic yet. The Mountaineers are in a fine position to make the NCAA Tournament if they can right the ship. Their next two games - Oklahoma and Arkansas - could determine their season, though.

These are two games that West Virginia needs to split at the worst. If they lose both of these games, they’ll have a tough time turning things around against Baylor and Texas Tech in their next two contests.

Overall, we aren’t at a spot where West Virginia fans need to panic about the current team. It looks bleaker than bright at the moment, but this week will determine the remainder of their season. If the Mountaineers can’t pick up a win against Oklahoma or Arkansas, it will be time to press the panic button. 

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