A New Favorite? ESPN FPI Flips Percentages for Backyard Brawl

The computers have a different outlook on West Virginia's matchup with Pitt.

Michael Longo/For USA Today Network / USA TODAY NETWORK

I'm sure I'm not the only one, but to see the Backyard Brawl played in September is still weird to me. This is a game that needs to be played in late November, even as a non-conference game.

Since the Brawl returned in 2022, we've had a pair of really close games. When West Virginia made the trip up north two years ago, they had several opportunities to win the game but due to an unlucky bounce off of wide receiver Bryce Ford-Wheaton's hands, the Panthers won on a pick-six.

Last season, WVU lost starting quarterback Garrett Greene just a handful of plays into the game having to turn things over to redshirt freshman Nicco Marchiol. The Mountaineers had to scrap their original gameplan and be more conservative with the young quarterback but still came out on top 17-6.

Prior to the start of the season, West Virginia had a 55.8% chance to beat Pitt according to the ESPN FPI. Now, it only gives the Mountaineers a 47.5% chance to win, while Pitt has a 52.5% chance.

What changed? I'm not sure, to be honest.

Perhaps giving up over 300 yards in the air to an FCS quarterback has something to do with it. It could also be the very simple fact of the Panthers being 2-0 as well. The FPI doesn't view the games by how teams match up with each other, implement tendencies, or how a particular team looked in the game the week prior. It just takes the stats and final score from previous weeks and spits out a percentage.

If you watched Pitt fall behind 27-6 last week to Cincinnati, you'd be questioning what allowed the percentages to flip. Sure, they erased the 21-point deficit to win but they should have never been in that spot to begin with.

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