Another Home Loss Incoming? ESPN FPI Predicts West Virginia to Fall to UCF

West Virginia is hoping to get off the schneid at home, but the computers don't like their chances.

Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Just like that, the final home game of the regular season is here for the West Virginia Mountaineers. It's been a long season in terms of how the year has unfolded, but in some ways, it feels like yesterday that they were gearing up for the big-time season-opener against Penn State.

The mood around the WVU fanbase has done a complete 180 since that week leading up to the season, as fans have been clamoring for the administration to make a head coaching change. If the same stale product shows up in the final two weeks of the season, there will be a lot of outside pressure on athletic director Wren Baker, even more than there is now.

This week, the Mountaineers welcome the UCF Knights to town for the first time since 2003. With a win, WVU becomes bowl-eligible while simultaneously eliminating UCF from bowl contention.

What the FPI says this week

According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) matchup predictor, West Virginia has a 44.7% chance of winning, while UCF has a 55.3% chance.

UCF has lost six of its last seven games, but three of those defeats came by one score. They've put a scare into some of the top teams in the Big 12 such as Iowa State, BYU, and most recently, Arizona State. Two of the Knights' four wins came against lower-tier opponents in FCS New Hampshire and Sam Houston, who is one of the newer FBS teams.

Meanwhile, for West Virginia, they're desperately searching for ways to win a game at home. The Mountaineers are 2-4 this season when playing at Milan Puskar Stadium, with their last victory coming on September 21st against Kansas. And in that game, WVU had to erase an 11-point deficit late in the fourth quarter to come out on top.

Are the percentages for this week right?

For whatever reason, the Mountaineers are underdogs in the matchup, according to the sportsbooks and the computers. I can understand the thinking that WVU will fall flat after being eliminated in the Big 12 race, but the matchup, in my opinion, actually plays to West Virginia's strengths. UCF won't air it out 35 times, which is great news for that secondary. I'd actually flip these percentages, giving West Virginia a 55.3% chance.

How accurate has the FPI been predicting West Virginia games this year?

For just the third time this season, the FPI matchup predictor incorrectly picked a Mountaineer game. Last week, West Virginia was given a 52.9% chance to defeat Baylor but fell to the Bears 49-35. The only other games the predictor got wrong were the matchups with Oklahoma State and Cincinnati.

West Virginia and UCF will tee the ball up at 3:30 p.m. EST and will be televised on ESPNU.

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