Breaking Down WVU's 2023 Schedule Into Tiers

Categorizing each game by level of difficulty.

West Virginia will see six new opponents on its schedule this football season, opening up with Penn State on the road, Duquesne at home, and then facing each of the four new members of the Big 12 Conference. 

I won't get into my final preseason record prediction for the Mountaineers just yet, but here's how I see the schedule by breaking it down into tiers.

NO SWEAT - vs. Duquesne

The Dukes have absolutely no chance to win this game and if we're being honest, they'll be lucky to put two scores on the board. This one should be a laugher as WVU looks to remain perfect versus FCS opponents.

LOOK LIKE WINS - vs. BYU, vs. Cincinnati, at Houston

West Virginia faces each of the four new members of the Big 12 and three of those games appear to be in the Mountaineers' favor. BYU was close to being a coin flip game but with it being at home, I gave the edge to WVU. 

Cincinnati and Houston are going to take a beating in their first year in the league. Cincinnati isn't the same team that went to the CFP a couple years ago and Houston just lost a ton of pieces, including QB Clayton Tune.

COIN FLIP - vs. Pitt, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Texas Tech

Pitt nearly made the tier listed above with it being the Backyard Brawl, you just never know. Heck, West Virginia should have won that game last year but couldn't make the routine plays to close out the game. I do think West Virginia wins this time around, but it's a close call. 

This truly looks like a down year for Oklahoma State but every other year I've thought that, Mike Gundy somehow gets a nine or ten win season out of them. The man can coach, so I'll give the respect he's earned.

Neal Brown has never beat Texas Tech since being hired in 2019. Who would have thought he would be Oklahoma and end WVU's drought against the Sooners before defeating Tech? Not me. But this isn't just about the trend. Joey McGuire is building something in Lubbock and they've got an offense that will give a lot of teams trouble, including West Virginia's.

LOOK LIKE LOSSES - at TCU, at UCF, at Baylor

The Frogs lost several pieces off of last year's national championship team but they still have a lot of talent in the cupboard. Being that it's a road game, it's difficult for me to see West Virginia going in there and winning against what will likely be a top 25-caliber team.

The Bounce House will be rocking for UCF's homecoming game against WVU. As crazy as it may be, UCF's starters can go toe to toe with WVU's. Their secondary is very good and will give Garrett Greene/Nicco Marchiol some issues. There's a chance the Mountaineers go down to Orlando and pull one out but the odds are against them.

Dave Aranda will get the Bears back on track after a disappointing 2022 season. This one could have went in the bucket above if it were a home game. 

CHANCES ARE SLIM TO NONE - at Penn State, at Oklahoma

Could West Virginia shock the world and knock off Penn State in Happy Valley? They could, but it's going to take a miracle and a half to do so. The Nittany Lions are primed for another big year in which they'll be competing for a Big Ten championship and much more. Tough environment for an extremely young team to go into to open up the season.

WVU got the monkey off their back last season by beating Oklahoma for the first time since joining the Big 12 Conference. If there was ever a year there were going to do it, it was last year. The Sooners were in a transition year with first-year head coach Brent Venables and they struggled all season long. Many believe, myself included, that Oklahoma will be back in contention for a conference title this season. Plus, WVU has not won in Norman since joining the league either.

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