Can West Virginia Finish Strong? ESPN FPI Reveals Chances to Beat Texas Tech

A high-scoring affair appears to be in store in Lubbock this weekend. Can the Mountaineers come out on top?

Ben Queen-Imagn Images

No one truly cares to hear about a "strong finish" when the season has been a complete disappointment, but that's all West Virginia fans can hope for at this point with a 6-5 record entering the regular season finale in Lubbock.

Even with a win over Texas Tech, the mood around the WVU football program won't change much, and there will still be a lot of conversation about whether or not Neal Brown is the right man for the job. With the distractions of the uncertain future and some guys potentially already looking to hit the portal, you have to wonder how engaged they will be after making the long trip out to West Texas.

What the FPI says this week

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) matchup predictor, West Virginia has just a 42.1% chance to end the season with a win while Texas Tech has a 57.9% chance.

Texas Tech got out to a pretty strong start, winning five of its first six games, with their only loss coming to Washington State - a game in which running back Tahj Brooks did not play. They've hit some choppy waters of late, alternating wins and losses over the last month, but they do have an impressive road win over Iowa State under their belt.

As for West Virginia, playing away from Milan Puskar Stadium has been a good thing this season. The schedule plays a big part in that, with all of the tough games occurring at home and the less challenging contests taking place on the road. In previous years under head coach Neal Brown, the Mountaineers have not fared well whatsoever away from Morgantown. They'll finish undefeated in such games in league play if they can pull off the win on Saturday.

Are the percentages for this week right?

As successful as West Virginia has been on the road this season, I'm a little shocked they are getting as much love as they are. I figured Texas Tech would be at 60% or higher, especially considering how explosive their offense is. That being said, it's in the neighborhood of what I expected.

How accurate has the FPI been predicting West Virginia games this year?

The FPI had been pretty spot-on for much of the season, at least when it comes to West Virginia. However, it is on a three-game slide, incorrectly picking the matchups with Cincinnati, Baylor, and UCF. Through 11 games, it has a 7-4 record, with the only other incorrect pick being Oklahoma State over West Virginia earlier in the year.

West Virginia and Texas Tech will tee the ball up at 12 p.m. EST and will be televised on FS1.

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