Contenders or Pretenders? Breaking Down the Big 12 Into Tiers

Four teams, four tiers. A look at where each Big 12 team sits entering the 2024 season.

Dec 27, 2023; Charlotte, NC, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers running back Jahiem White (22) scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The new-look Big 12 is officially here. Out are Oklahoma and Texas and in are Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah. Who has the best chance to make it to Dallas for the Big 12 championship? We break up the 16 teams into four tiers.

TIER 4: BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR

The teams: Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati.

I don't have a whole lot to say here about these four teams. It's going to be an uphill battle for each of them. Of the four, I'd say BYU has the best shot of getting out of this tier, but it's not very likely. These are the clear bottom four teams in the league, in my opinion.

TIER 3: NOT EXPECTING MUCH

The teams: Colorado, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech.

There's a lot of hype around Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs, but this is a team that is still heavily reliant on transfers. Depth remains an issue, although it's an improvement from what they had to work with a year ago. The other three - Houston, TCU, and Texas Tech - are all in the same boat. They have quarterbacks that are all above average but can get a little careless with the football at times. I'm not putting faith into any one of them. They'll give some teams some fits, but not consistently enough to be anywhere but the middle of the pack in the Big 12.

TIER 2: THERE'S A CHANCE

The teams: Iowa State, Kansas, UCF, West Virginia.

Two of these teams will separate themselves from this group and truly push for a spot at the top of the league, I'm just not sure which. On paper, Kansas and UCF have much lighter schedules than Iowa State and West Virginia, but that doesn't necessarily equate to more success.

Iowa State has the best defensive unit here which is not that much of a surprise, but they need more out of their offense to make any sort of noise. They really struggled to run the ball, but eventually found an answer in Abu Sama who averaged 7.3 yards per carry. A balanced offensive attack to pair with a strong defense will make the Cyclones a true threat.

For Kansas, it really starts and ends with QB Jalon Daniels. Two years ago, KU won its first five games and then finished 1-7 once he was sidelined with an injury. He won all three starts last season before sitting out the remainder of the year and the Jayhawks went 6-4 without him. If he's healthy from start to finish, Lance Leipold will have the Kansas Jayhawks fighting for a trip to Dallas.

UCF's offense will certainly be able to put up some points, but they can't try to outscore everyone. They must improve in stopping the run if they want a shot at contending. They finished dead last in the league allowing over 194 yards on the ground per game in 2023.

West Virginia returns a bunch of talent on the offensive side of the ball and quite a bit of depth in the front seven of their defense. The secondary received a massive makeover this offseason with a bunch of transfers, so chemistry will be the biggest concern in the early weeks of the season. Offensively, the Mountaineers need Garrett Greene to improve upon his 53% completion percentage.

TIER 1: THE FAVORITES

The teams: Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah.

Arizona has one of the most dynamic connections in all of college football with QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan. The two connected 90 times for 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns as freshmen. The Wildcats lost some key pieces to the NFL Draft and the transfer portal, but they're still in great shape to make a run.

I loved Kansas State heading into last season, picking them as a team to go to the Big 12 championship and I think I like this group even more with Avery Johnson at quarterback. He's got that 'It' factor to him and can help the Wildcats steal a game or two.

I counted Oklahoma State out way too early last year and once again, Mike Gundy made me look like a fool. Not doing that again. My biggest concern with the Pokes was the quarterback position. It still remains a bit of a concern after Alan Bowman threw 14 interceptions, but they can lean on Ollie Gordon, one of the nation's top running backs, to lead the way.

The Utes have the stingiest defense in the league and by a pretty wide margin. Kyle Whittingham is also arguably the league's best coach. And to top it all off, Utah has the most experienced/winningest quarterback in Cameron Rising. It's pretty easy to see why the Utes are at the top of everyone's power rankings as they're the most complete team heading into 2024.

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