ESPN's FPI Predictor Can't Seem to Get Accurate Read on WVU vs. Kansas State

Can West Virginia get back above .500?

Schuyler Callihan | Oct 16, 2024

West Virginia University linebacker Reid Carrico / Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

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West Virginia Mountaineers

Halfway through the 2024 season, the West Virginia Mountaineers are still a team everyone is trying to figure out.

Are they a good team that's just happened to lose to three undefeated, top-25 opponents? Or are they a group that is going to beat up on the bad teams and lose to everyone else that has a winning record?

I'm not sure I have the answer and apparently neither does the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) matchup predictor. Obviously, this thing fluctuates from week to week, but it's been all over the place with this matchup in particular.

Tracking the movement

Just before the start of the season, it gave WVU a 47.5% chance to win versus Kansas State. The week of Big 12 play getting underway it dropped to 32.3%. Before the dominant win at Oklahoma State, it was at 37.8% and then spiked to 48.9%. Now, it sits at West Virginia 43.2% to Kansas State's 56.8%.

Is the FPI right?

For once, I actually agree with this thing. I know Neal Brown's record against Top-25 opponents has been atrocious, but K-State has been ranked in at least one of the two major polls in each of Brown's two victories over the Wildcats.

Earlier this season, there was a ton of negativity surrounding the program after the collapse in the Backyard Brawl. They bounced back with a come-from-behind win over Kansas and then, of course, the cakewalk in Stillwater. I'm not calling for an upset here, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Mountaineers found a way to leave Milan Puskar Stadium Saturday night in a good mood.

Each time the noise surrounding Neal Brown's job gets a little louder, it gets cooled off for a week or two.

FPI's accuracy on WVU this year

Last season, the FPI struggled mightily to predict West Virginia games. Then again, so did everyone. No one saw a nine-win season coming. This year, it's been pretty darn accurate with a 5-1 prediction record. The only game it has wrongly predicted was Oklahoma State.

It flipped its thoughts on the Backyard Brawl the week of the game switching from West Virginia to Pitt which it correctly picked. At times, the predictor has been scary good. For example, the Mountaineers were given a 50.6% chance to beat Kansas. That game was as down to the wire as it gets and once again, the predictor was correct.

Should it prove to be correct this week, the Mountaineers will fall to 3-17 under Neal Brown versus ranked teams and more importantly, 3-4 on the season with a 2-2 record in league play. West Virginia has to find a way on Saturday if they want to be in the mix in late November.

West Virginia and Kansas State will start at approximately 7:30 p.m. EST on FOX.

Tracking the movement

Is the FPI right?

FPI's accuracy on WVU this year

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