ESPN FPI Predicts Each Game on WVU's Big 12 Schedule

Missing out on a bowl game? This would not bode well for Neal Brown.

Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

Thanks to a 1-2 record in non-conference play, the West Virginia Mountaineers have put themselves in a tough position. Just to become bowl eligible, they will need to go 5-4 or better in conference play - something they've only done once (2023) under current head coach Neal Brown.

The computers aren't always right, but they typically have a good pulse for how things are going to go. The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projects West Virginia to have a better than 50% chance of winning in just four of their nine league games. If this holds true, the Mountaineers won't go bowling this winter.

Here's a look at the FPI's current stance on each WVU game with the percentage shown being the Mountaineers' chances to win.

vs. Kansas - 50.6%

I can understand how this is a bit of a toss-up, but West Virginia is the better team and with this being at home, I expect WVU to come out on top. A little shocked this isn't closer to 60%.

at Oklahoma State - 25.8%

Want me to be honest here? 25% is too generous. Sure, the Cowboys play Utah and Kansas State coming into this matchup with the Mountaineers, but WVU has not fared well against this team nor at Boone Pickens Stadium.

vs. Iowa State - 56.2%

Ah, yes! Finally, one I agree with. While the Cyclones should be in the Big 12 title conversation, they're going to have some hiccups along the way and this looks like one spot on the schedule where it could happen.

vs. Kansas State - 32.3%

I had a feeling K-State would be a top team in the league again, but man, they look legit through the first three weeks of the season. West Virginia gets a little love here with this one being at Mountaineer Field, but the Wildcats will be a clear favorite in this game.

at Arizona - 42%

Arizona may not be as dangerous as we all thought heading into the season. They haven't been very impressive on offense despite returning a terrific QB-WR duo in Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan. This looks more of a winnable game than it did in August and that's taking WVU's struggles into account.

at Cincinnati - 53.6%

Only 53%? Eh, I don't know. Cincinnati is expected to be one of the bottom dwellers in the Big 12 and by this point in this season, WVU should have some answers defensively. At least you would hope. Even with this being on the road, I'd put this around 65%.

vs. Baylor - 55%

The Bears still have a lot to prove, but they may be getting things turned around down there in Waco. I believe in Dave Aranda, so this should be a good game and one that could go either way.

vs. UCF - 29.5%

Alright...is this ESPN just messing with me? If you've watched Between The Eers or The Walk Thru GameDay Show, you know I'm A LOT lower on UCF than most. I don't get the love for this team. I really don't. Could they be in play for the Big 12 title? Maybe, but very unlikely. But you're telling me there's a 70.6% chance UCF walks out of Morgantown with a win? I don't think so.

at Texas Tech - 41.5%

Lubbock is a tough place to play and for the most part, Tech has had Neal Brown's number since he came to West Virginia. This one is in the ballpark of the right number. I would have guessed 38%.

MORE STORIES FROM WEST VIRGINIA ON SI

Updated Big 12 Title Odds as League Play Begins

Walk Thru GameDay Show: West Virginia vs. Kansas Preview + Prediction

Bowl Projections for West Virginia Entering Week 4

Between The Eers: How WVU Beats Kansas