What the ESPN FPI Says About WVU's Chances Against Pitt
According to the ESPN FPI, the West Virginia Mountaineers have just a 35.9% chance to defeat Pitt in Saturday's Backyard Brawl. Pitt has a 64.1% chance to win the game.
Make it make sense.
I'm not pounding the table for WVU here saying it's a lock that they win this game, but not even a 40% chance? At home? Yeah, I don't know what formula the computer went with to spit those numbers out, but it must have had a malfunction.
WVU and Pitt each took care of business against FCS foes, however, the Mountaineers handled their non-conference Power Five game much better. West Virginia only trailed No. 7 Penn State 14-7 at the half and really only lost the game by two scores, but James Franklin had to hurry his offense up to make it a three-score difference. It was a much tighter, competitive game than the final score would indicate.
As for Pitt, well, they let Cincinnati, a team that is in clear rebuild mode and doesn't yet have the depth of a Power Five roster, run all over them and beat them on their own field. The Bearcats rushed for 216 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Offensively, the Panthers were a mess as quarterback Phil Jurkovec completed just 10-of-32 pass attempts and was booed by his own fans.
Going back to last year's Brawl, it was a game that West Virginia gave away. They would have been in a great position to win had they gone for it on 4th & 1 near midfield and converted OR if the ball didn't bounce off of Bryce Ford-Wheaton and right into the hands of MJ Devonshire, who returned it for the game-winning pick-six.
It'll be a crazy atmosphere and one that will help West Virginia to a win, in my opinion. The ESPN FPI is way off on this one.
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