ESPN's FPI Predicts Uninspiring Finish to West Virginia's 2024 Season

Is reaching a bowl game enough to please Mountaineer fans? Highly unlikely.

Ben Queen-Imagn Images

It's been a disappointing 2024 season for West Virginia, but they still have an opportunity to get right and finish the season on a strong note with a relatively easier schedule in the month of November. The big question, of course, is the status of quarterback Garrett Greene and whether he'll be able to return to action, and if so, when.

With it being the bye week, I figured we could look at the big picture here with the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). Below is the current percent chance the FPI matchup predictor gives West Virginia to win each game remaining on its schedule.

at Cincinnati - 39.8%

I'll be honest: this one is a tricky matchup to read for a lot of different reasons. West Virginia has gone through a gauntlet of a schedule and could be without their starting quarterback once again.

Cincinnati, on the other hand, enters this matchup at a surprising 5-3, but they haven't played a single ranked team yet. They've beaten Towson, Miami (OH), Arizona State with a backup quarterback, and UCF and Houston, who are a combined 3-7 in Big 12 play.

Because it's on the road, I can understand the computers favoring the Bearcats, but I think it's a lot closer to 50/50.

vs. Baylor - 54.1%

How about them Bears? After a disappointing 2-4 start to the season, Baylor has reeled off two straight wins and looks like a completely different beast. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson is carving teams up right now, and you know he has to be licking his chops seeing this defensive secondary on his upcoming schedule.

Once again, I understand why the computers lean toward West Virginia here, but this is a pure toss-up game for me.

vs. UCF - 53.6%

Only 53.6%? Yikes. I expected this to be north of 60. The Knights have lost five straight, and although they're favored to win this week against Arizona, it's one they can certainly drop before heading out to Arizona State.

What am I saying here? Well, there's a pretty good chance UCF enters this road trip to Morgantown on a seven-game losing streak. For a team that believed they were fit for a Big 12 title run this year, losing seven straight and being ineligible for a bowl, I question the level of enthusiasm they'll come to West Virginia with in late November.

at Texas Tech - 45.4%

This is a bit generous, don't you think? The Red Raiders have a high-flying offense that poses a lot of issues for this reeling West Virginia defense.

Behren Morton has a 17/3 touchdown to interception ratio, and Tahj Brooks is still one of the best running backs in the conference, pushing closer to 1,000 yards on the season.

Texas Tech has had Neal Brown's number, regardless of coach, so it wouldn't be all that surprising to see the Mountaineers fall in the season finale.

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