How Tough is West Virginia's Schedule? The FPI Weighs In

Do the Mountaineers really have an easier slate in 2024? The computers say so.

Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

West Virginia rattled off nine wins in 2023, doubling their projected win total by various sportsbooks across the nation who pegged them at 4.5.

Although the Mountaineers took everyone by surprise, even its own fans, there was skepticism about how good that group actually was. Why? The schedule. They went 0-2 against ranked opponents and player all four of the Big 12's newcomers in addition to Duquesne and a Pitt team that only won three games. Don't ask me how, but according to the ESPN FPI, West Virginia ranked 28th in strength of schedule at season's end and had a strength of record that ranked 23rd.

Don't believe me? Click here for proof.

This year, West Virginia has a brutal stretch of games arching from Sep. 21 to Oct. 26 where they will face Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Arizona. If you ask me, that's 10X more daunting than anything they endured in 2023. ESPN, however, disagrees. The FPI rates West Virginia's schedule 36th in the country.

Below, I put the 2023 and 2024 schedules side by side.

2023 (with team's final overall record)	2024 (with FPI projected W-L record)
at Penn State (10-2)	vs. Penn State (10.1-2.3)
vs. Duquesne (7-5)	vs. Albany (N/A)
vs. Pitt (3-9)	at Pitt (6.4-5.7)
vs. Texas Tech (6-6)	vs. Kansas (8.7-3.6)
at TCU (5-7)	at Oklahoma State (7.6-4.6)
at Houston (4-8)	vs. Iowa State (6.6-5.5)
vs. Oklahoma State (9-3)	vs. Kansas State (8.4-3.9)
at UCF (6-6)	at Arizona (7.9-4.3)
vs. BYU (5-7)	at Cincinnati (5.2-6.8)
at Oklahoma (10-2)	vs. Baylor (5.8-6.2)
vs. Cincinnati (3-9)	vs. UCF (7.4-4.7)
at Baylor (3-9)	at Texas Tech (7.6-4.5)

I've studied this for longer than I probably need to and I still can't figure out how in the world 2023's slate is more difficult. Everyone else's schedule obviously plays into this, but WVU played half of its schedule against FBS teams who finished with a losing record. The FPI projects only two opponents - Cincinnati and Baylor - to finish below .500 in 2024.

I don't know about you, but I think these computers need rebooted.

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