Pitt Preview and Prediction

Pitt and West Virginia renew the Backyard Brawl in the season opener, who will come out on top?

After an 11-year hiatus, the West Virginia University Mountaineers and the University of Pittsburgh Panthers will rekindle the Backyard Brawl to kickoff week 1 of the college football season, Thursday, September 1 at 7:00 pm EST and will be nationally televised on ESPN.

The two programs are coming off two entirely different seasons but there are some similarities between the two heading into the 2022 season. On offense, both schools return all five starting offensive linemen, hired new offensive coordinators, and brought in quarterbacks from the transfer portal. Defensively, the two return the bulk of their production on the defensive line but have questions within the linebackers and in the secondary.

Dec 4, 2021; Charlotte, NC, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi holds up the trophy after defeating the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the ACC championship game at Bank of America Stadium / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, Pitt claimed its first ACC title since joining the conference in 2013, also marking the program's first conference championship since 2010 and the first ten-plus win season in 40 years. Head coach Pat Narduzzi will have to defend their title without All-American quarterback Kenny Pickett and Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison. However, Panthers coaching staff are looking to make the running game a priority with newly hired offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr., but the staff has also said they were looking for a more balanced offense after leading the ACC in passing yards a last year. 

Narduzzi stated in the midst of fall camp to expect a Panther running back to hit the 1,000-yard barrier this season, a mark the program has not hit since 2018 where Qadree Wilson and Darren Hall both eclipsed the 1000-yard mark, but I would be remiss not to mention the team went 7-6 that season.

Dec 4, 2021; Charlotte, NC, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers running back Israel Abanikanda (2) scores a touchdown as Wake Forest Demon Deacons linebacker DJ Taylor (46) and defensive back Traveon Redd (17) defend in the third quarter of the ACC championship game at Bank of America Stadium / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Panthers’ three-headed rushing attack features Israel Abanikanda, Vincent Davis and Rodney Hammond Jr. The trio combined for 1,748 yards and 16 touchdowns along with 379 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 55 receptions.

Now that Pickett is with the Pittsburgh Steelers, leading the Panther passing attack in 2022 will be USC transfer Kedon Slovis. He ended the 2021 season with a lower leg injury, finishing the year with 2,158 yards, 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

His career got off to a fast start, garnering first team Freshman All-America honors from the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) and was the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year and Associated Press Pac-12 Newcomer of the Year after tossing for 3,502 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2019. However, his development slowed in 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions, only appearing in six games but threw for 1,921 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Removing three games from his resume where he left two games early with an injury and his first game at USC he came in for an injured JT Daniels in the season opener, Slovis is averaging 312.5 yards per game for his career.

Addison leaving the Pitt program for USC opens the opportunity for six-foot-three 210-pound senior receiver Jared Wayne and Akron transfer Konata Mumpfield. Wayne was second on the team in receptions (47) yard (658) and touchdowns (6). Of note, sophomore tight end Gavin Bartholomew hauled in 28 passes for 326 yards and four touchdowns.

Nov 11, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers defensive lineman Habakkuk Baldonado (87) sacks North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Sam Howell (7) during the first quarter at Heinz Field / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Defensively, the Panthers bring back arguably the best defensive line in the country led by defensive end Habakkuk Baldonado. He had a team-leading nine sacks and was second on the team with 11.5 tackles for a loss while his counterpart defensive tackle and first team All-ACC selection Calijah Kancey led the team in tackles for a loss with 13 and was second on the team in sacks with seven.

At linebacker, SirVocea Dennis is the lone returning starter within the room. He accumulated a team-leading 87 tackles, including 9.5 tackles for a loss and four sacks. He will be accompanied by Notre Dame transfer Shayne Simon, who made 32 appearances, including eight starts, totaling 27 tackles, three TFLs and five pass breakups.

The Panthers' secondary is highlighted by safeties Brandon Hill and Erick Hallett. The two combined for 151 tackles, 3.5 tackles for a loss, 5 interceptions and 15 pass breakups. Returning cornerback Marquis Williams had one interception on the year. Despite the experience in the secondary, the unit was one of the worst in the country last season, allowing 264.3 yard per game through the air.

Prediction

This game has the billing to be an instant classic, and as if the Backyard Brawl needed any more juice, once former teammates Kedon Slovis and JT Daniels will square off with one another while their former offensive coordinator Graham Harrell has taken the reins of the Mountaineer offense and is providing Daniels the tools to bring offense back to Morgantown. Meanwhile, it’s interesting Narduzzi is veering away from the offense that brought the program the most success it had not seen in four decades.

Pitt begins the season inside the top 20 after taking the 2021 ACC Championship but the loss of Pickett and Addison is going to be tough to overcome to open the season. They do return all five starters along the offensive line, a group eager to prove they can pave the way for a 1,000-yard rusher after ranking 13th in the ACC in average yard per carry (4.0 ypc) and 11th in rushing yards per game (149.2).

This will be a challenge for a Mountaineer defense which ranked sixth in the Big 12 in rush defense, allowing 130.9 yards per game a season ago.

Oct 23, 2021; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers defensive back Charles Woods (29) dives to recover a fumble during the fourth quarter against the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium / Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Slovis is a talented quarterback and if allowed, will be able to sling the ball around the field while West Virginia has several new pieces in the secondary, accompanied by young talent but the secondary features 2022 Preseason All-Big 12 Conference selection Charles Woods.

The Pitt defense is undoubtedly a handful, especially up front. West Virginia returns all five of its linemen but flipped tackles Wyatt Milum and Brandon Yates from right to left. This is also a group eager to prove they are one of the better units within the league. They will have to play the games of their lives against this front but will have help with tight end Brian Polendey and running back Tony Mathis Jr. in pass protection. Narduzzi’s defense does leave its corners on an island and giving Daniels time will be imperative to hit the big play.

Explosives plays have eluded the Mountaineers offense since Neal Brown’s arrival, and in a little self-reflection following the 2021 season, the head man handed off play calling duties to Harrell. Along with the addition of Daniels, it will be a turning point for the program.

Sep 14, 2019; Morgantown, WV, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Sam James (13) catches a pass and runs for a touchdown during the first quarter against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium / Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

The West Virginia receiving corps has lacked consistency but installing the AIR RAID offense may revitalize a unit which broke program records with the scheme under the guidance of former head coach Dana Holgorsen. I suspect either Bryce Ford-Wheaton or Sam James will have become the first 1,000-yard receiver in the Neal Brown era.

With the offensive spreading the field, it should open up the running game spearheaded by Tony Mathis Jr, who has shown flashes while providing backing up Leddie Brown the past two seasons.

Pitt winning the ACC Championship last season has brought life into a fanbase expecting to pick up where it left off, and the coaches remain confident in its roster despite the departures. The same optimism is surrounding Morgantown as well with the addition of quarterback JT Daniels and Graham Harrell.

I suspect the Mountaineers will come out on top. Pitt was not on the rise prior to the 2021 season, although Pickett may have had a better 2020 (Along with so many others around the country) had his development not been disrupted by the pandemic. Nonetheless, the best year in decades has a G5 blemish with the loss to West Michigan.

West Virginia Mountaineers defensive lineman Dante Stills (55) rushes Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Will Howard (15) during the second quarter at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium / Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Pitt may have reloaded with Slovis but the change at offensive coordinator with a focus to run the ball, may be detrimental if the offensive line cannot live up to the expectations to run the ball. Regardless, the Mountaineer run defense should make a significant jump this season with the addition of middle linebacker Lee Kpogba and WILL linebackers Lance Dixon and Exree Loe had a productive offseason and should fill the gaps behind tough defensive line highlighted by Dante Stills.

The secondary will have growing pains but fortunately, the Pitt receivers will still be getting their feet wet, looking to replace the production of Addison.

It will be a battle, but I like West Virginia in this one, 27-23. 

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