Preseason Big 12 Power Rankings & Record Predictions

An in-depth look at the Big 12 Conference.

The start of the 2024 college football season will soon be here! The Big 12 Conference may not offer a team who can compete for a national championship this season, but you could argue that it will be the most entertaining league with as many as seven or eight teams believing they can hoist the conference championship trophy at season's end.

Each week throughout the season, I'll post a new batch of Big 12 power rankings. But you have to start somewhere, right? So here we go. Here is my 2024 preseason Big 12 power rankings, listed from No. 16 all the way down to No. 1.

REMEMBER: Power rankings rank the overall talent of each team and their potential. Predicted records and head-to-head matchups are not what the rankings are based off of.

16. Arizona State Sun Devils

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Want reasons for optimism in Tempe? Well, you're not going to find it here. Kenny Dillingham has a major rebuild on his hands and it doesn't help that they play five of the top eight teams in the conference. All I have to say here is good luck.

Projected wins: Wyoming, Texas State, Cincinnati
Projected losses: Mississippi State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, UCF, Kansas State, BYU, Arizona
Projected record: 3-9 (1-8)

15. Cincinnati Bearcats

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Depth is a big issue for Cincinnati right now and not having at least a handful of star playmakers on both sides of the ball will make life challenging for them this fall. Running back Corey Kiner and defensive lineman Dontay Corleone are All-Big 12 caliber players, but that's about it. Another long year incoming for Scott Satterfield.

Projected wins: Towson, Miami (OH), Texas Tech, Iowa State
Projected losses: Pitt, Houston, UCF, Arizona State, Colorado, West Virginia, Kansas State, TCU
Projected record: 4-8 (2-7)

14. Houston Cougars

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Dana Holgorsen out, Willie Fritz in. I'm not sure Houston gave Dana enough time, especially after just one year in the Big 12. However, they did hire a known program builder in Fritz. QB Donovan Smith will give them a chance to be competitive, but this roster is a long ways away from becoming a true player in the conference.

Projected wins: UNLV, Rice, Cincinnati, Arizona
Projected losses: Oklahoma, Iowa State, TCU, Kansas, Utah, Kansas State, Baylor, BYU
Projected record: 4-8 (2-7)

13. BYU Cougars

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Kalani Sitake is a very underrated coach and although things don't look great for the Cougars, he'll get them turned around sooner than later. They will struggle to score with question marks at virtually every skill spot, so they're going to need their defense to take a step or three to fight for bowl eligibility.

Projected wins: Southern Illinois, Wyoming, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Houston
Projected losses: SMU, Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, UCF, Utah, Kansas
Projected record: 5-7 (3-6)

12. Baylor Bears

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Since winning the Big 12 championship a couple of years ago, things have spiraled for head coach Dave Aranda. In that span, they've compiled a 9-16 record, including a dreadful 3-9 season a year ago. For the Bears to claw their way out of the cellar, they must improve in the run game...on both sides. They finished 2023 111th in rushing (115 yards/game) and 118th in rushing defense (185 yards/game). If Aranda fails to make a bowl game, it's hard to justify keeping him around.

Projected wins: Tarleton State, Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
Projected losses: Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
Projected record: 5-7 (3-6)

11. Texas Tech Red Raiders

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Injuries decimated their dreams of competing for a Big 12 title a year ago, specifically the loss of QB Tyler Shough. Having one of the best running backs in the league (Tahj Brooks) helps, but this Red Raider team feels like it's in a bit of a rebuild. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up a couple of spots higher at season's end, but they're not moving above the middle of the pack.

Projected wins: Abilene Christian, North Texas, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado
Projected losses: Washington State, Cincinnati, Arizona, TCU, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Projected record: 5-7 (3-6)

10. Colorado Buffaloes

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Can Prime silence the haters? We'll see. Although his son, Shedeur, is without question the top quarterback in the conference, I'm hesitant to believe a team mostly made up of transfers can have loads of success. The offensive line was a mess and even with ten linemen transferring in, there's no guarantee that issue will be resolved. 72 new players in total is just too much for anyone to overcome.

Projected wins: North Dakota State, Nebraska, Colorado State, Baylor, Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas
Projected losses: UCF, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Utah, Oklahoma State
Projected record: 7-5 (4-5)

9. TCU Horned Frogs

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As far as the passing game is concerned, TCU could be sneaky good. They return a talented and more developed Josh Hoover at QB while also bringing back their top two receivers from a year ago in Savion Williams and JP Richardson. Boise State transfer Eric McAllister helps give them a reliable third option. How do they compliment the pass game, though? They lose Emani Bailey to the NFL, so it'll be unproven Cam Cook and Arkansas transfer Dominque Johnson who has just a little over 200 yards combined over the last two years. They're going to have to score to be able to battle week in and week out. The defense should be improved, but it's a fringe bottom third of the league unit.

Projected wins: Stanford, Long Island, SMU, Houston, Texas Tech, Cincinnati
Projected losses: UCF, Kansas, Utah, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Arizona
Projected record: 6-6 (3-6)

8. Iowa State Cyclones

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No one in the Big 12 returns more production from last year than Iowa State, 20 starters in total. The biggest knock on this group in 2023 was their inability to run the football. Abu Sama eventually emerged as the lead back, but the consistency wasn't there which has me slightly concerned about the ground game. The Cyclones should take a step forward, but this season will be more of a launching pad for what they can do in 2025.

Projected wins: North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, UCF, Texas Tech, Kansas
Projected losses: Iowa, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Utah, Kansas State
Projected record: 7-5 (5-4)

7. UCF Knights

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UCF is the Big 12 preseason darling for a lot of folks. I understand the hype around former Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson and all the returning talent he'll have around him, but the depth is still a big question mark for me. We've seen it with every team that's made the transition from Group of Five to Power Four. UCF will make that transition quicker than others, but I have a difficult time buying into this group in particular.

Projected wins: New Hampshire, Sam Houston, TCU, Colorado, Cincinnati, BYU, Arizona State
Projected losses: Florida, Iowa State, Arizona, West Virginia, Utah
Projected record: 7-5 (5-4)

6. Kansas Jayhawks

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When Jalon Daniels is healthy, the Kansas Jayhawks are a completely different team. He helped them to a 5-0 start in 2022 before going down with an injury and then last season, KU won all three games Daniels started. They're 5-8 over the last two years in games where he did not start, so yes, he is what will make or break their shot at contention.

Projected wins: Lindenwood, Illinois, UNLV, TCU, Arizona State, Houston, Kansas State, BYU, Baylor
Projected losses: West Virginia, Iowa State, Colorado
Projected record: 9-3 (6-3)

5. Arizona Wildcats

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Jedd Fisch is out and that's a big loss for a very talented Arizona team. I do believe in Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan to be one of the best QB/WR connections in all of college football, but I'm skeptical how a coach (Brent Brennan) that went 34-48 as the head man at San Jose State will help push them into the Big 12 race. The secondary is the biggest question mark. They were horrendous in 2023 and will be leaning on a bevy of transfers. Arizona has the look of a team that will beat teams they shouldn't beat while also losing same games they shouldn't lose.

Projected wins: New Mexico, Northern Arizona, Utah, Texas Tech, BYU, West Virginia, UCF, TCU, Arizona State
Projected losses: Kansas State, Colorado, Houston
Projected record: 9-3 (6-3)

4. West Virginia Mountaineers

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This is without a doubt the most talented/deepest team Neal Brown has had since taking the job in 2019. Unfortunately, the schedule-makers did them no favors. They face a brutal five-game stretch to open up conference play, facing five of the six teams picked to finish ahead of them in the preseason Big 12 poll. If they're able to keep their head above water through that stretch, things will lighten up on the back end of the schedule, giving them a chance to play extremely meaningful football in November.

Projected wins: Albany, Pitt, Kansas, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Baylor, UCF, Texas Tech
Projected losses: Penn State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arizona
Projected record: 8-4 (6-3)

3. Kansas State Wildcats

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I've been super high on K-State over the last two years and although they lost some key pieces in QB Will Howard, TE Ben Sinnott, G Cooper Beebe, DE Khalid Duke, and others, I like this young core Chris Klieman has in place. There's a lot of hype surrounding sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson and rightfully so, but I'm not exactly sure how good he'll be in 2024. He'll play well at times, but he'll have his moments. Klieman always finds a way to overachieve and with a lighter Big 12 slate, they should be able to do exactly that, competing for a spot in Dallas.

Projected wins: UT Martin, Arizona, BYU, Colorado, West Virginia, Houston, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Iowa State
Projected losses: Tulane, Oklahoma State, Kansas
Projected record: 9-3 (7-2)

2. Oklahoma State Cowboys

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The Pokes rank in the top ten nationally in terms of returning experience on both sides of the ball. That being said, they need their defense to be significantly better in 2024. They did improve as the year went on (with the exception of the Texas game), so there's reason to believe they'll continue to trend in the right direction. Offensively, they have in my opinion the best running back in the nation in Ollie Gordon, who should be a favorite to win the Heisman. If Alan Bowman can take a little better care of the ball, OSU is going to be tough to beat.

Projected wins: South Dakota State, Arkansas, Tulsa, Kansas State, West Virginia, Baylor, Arizona State, TCU, Texas Tech, Colorado
Projected losses: Utah, BYU
Projected record: 10-2 (7-2)

1. Utah Utes

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The Utes bring a physical style of football to the Big 12 and one that will cause a lot of teams fits defensively. They run the ball well, play good defense, and typically do a good job of taking care of the ball. That recipe will deliver a boatload of wins and it's one Kyle Whittingham-coached teams have done for years. Having the most experienced quarterback in the league, Cameron Rising, helps too. They are No. 1, but Oklahoma State isn't far behind.

Projected wins: Southern Utah, Baylor, Utah State, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, TCU, Houston, BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, UCF
Projected losses: Arizona
Projected record: 11-1 (8-1)

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