Spread & Over/Under Predictions for WVU vs. Baylor

West Virginia is a small home dog this week. Can they cover the spread and win the game outright?

West Virginia University football vs. Cincinnati / Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

This Saturday, the West Virginia Mountaineers welcome in a red-hot Baylor Bears team that has won three straight games and aislooking to dash WVU's hopes of making it to the Big 12 Conference title game

Here are my picks for this week's WVU game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Baylor -2.5

2-star play on Baylor (-2.5): I've been back-and-forth on this game for the better part of two weeks regarding who I see winning. But my gut keeps telling me that West Virginia will fall flat. Every time the stage is set for the Mountaineers to do something big, like knock off a ranked team or remain in the Big 12 Conference title chase, I can't get myself to trust Neal Brown.

West Virginia's defense made strides last week defending the pass, but this week is another difficult challenge with Sawyer Robertson slinging it around. He's been one of the league's most efficient quarterbacks since taking over for Dequan Finn and has taken great care of the football. Five of Baylor's top six receivers are averaging over 14 yards per catch, meaning they can move the ball down the field quickly.

The concern on the defensive side of the ball, along with the unknown at quarterback for West Virginia, has me leaning toward laying the small number here with Baylor.

Over/Under: 59.5

1-star play on the over: For whatever reason, I don't feel great about the total in this one despite both defenses being extremely vulnerable. In six Big 12 games, Baylor has allowed an average of 35.3 points per game. That stat alone is enough to push me toward the over. Even if Nicco Marchiol does get the start, I have confidence that the Mountaineers will be in the neighborhood of scoring enough to push this total to 60+. Yes, the defense helped manufacture 17 points against Cincinnati, but in the two games Marchiol has started, West Virginia has scored 31 points.

For the same reasons I laid out above in the spread portion of this article, Baylor's passing game can be quite scary. Jake Spavital, believe it or not, has actually found a balance with a strong core of running backs, two of which are averaging at least six yards per carry. They're able to hit the big play at any moment. I'll take the over.

Record this season:

ATS: 6-3 (66%)
O/U: 4-5 (44%)
Overall: 10-8 (55%)

Odds Disclaimer

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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