Spread & Over/Under Predictions for WVU vs. Pitt

The money is coming in on the Panthers, so are they the right play?

Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

It's almost time for the 2024 version of the Backyard Brawl. This Saturday, the West Virginia Mountaineers will make the short trip up to Acrisure Stadium to take on their heated rival, Pitt. Who covers the spread in this one? Does the total go over or under? Our picks for this week's game are in. Odds courtesy of SI Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: West Virginia -2.5

1-star play on West Virginia (-2.5): The look-ahead line was 5.5 and I'm not sure what changed to have it be so far off from the opening number. That being said, 5.5 would have been way too many points for my liking to lay with the Mountaineers, so this is a much more comfortable number. Sure, Pitt's come-from-behind win over Cincinnati last week was impressive to an extent, but it also shows the Bearcats' inability to put away teams. To be trailing 27-6 at one point to one of the bottom feeders of the Big 12 is not a good look for the Panthers. Even with this one at home, I'm not sure they'll be able to cover the short number. West Virginia only had QB Garrett Greene for six plays last year in this game and still found a way to win comfortably.

Over/Under: 60.5

1-star play on the over: I initially thought this number was too high. Once I studied it a little bit more I began to question if it was high enough. The Mountaineers' secondary looked abysmal last week allowing 306 yards through the air to UAlbany. Pitt QB Eli Holstein has to love what he's seeing on tape heading into this one. Pitt has a new, uptempo offense that will challenge WVU from sideline to sideline. The Mountaineers haven't seen this style of offense yet which could be problematic. On the flip side, Pitt just allowed 216 yards on the ground to Cincinnati. Neal Brown is all about running the football and with three explosive ball carriers in Garrett Greene, Jahiem White, and CJ Donaldson, they have to be as equally as excited about the opportunity they'll have this week. This will be a stark contrast from the rock fight these two had a year ago. Lean to the over.

Record this season:

ATS; 1-1 (50%)
O/U: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 3-1 (75%)

Odds Disclaimer

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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