Spread & Over/Under Predictions for WVU vs. Kansas State

The Mountaineers are a home underdog for the second straight week. Do you take the points?

West Virginia University linebacker Trey Lathan / Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

For the second straight week, the West Virginia Mountaineers will host a Big 12 Conference game under the lights in primetime on FOX, welcoming in the 17th-ranked Kansas State Wildcats.

The Mountaineers couldn't get the job done last week against Iowa State despite having opportunities early to take a two-score lead and have early control of the game.

For the visiting Wildcats, they're entering this one with loads of confidence after taking down Colorado on the road in a down-to-the-wire thriller, 31-28.

Let's get into this week's picks.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Kansas State -3.5

1-star play on Kansas State (-3.5): I have no true opinion on this spread, but I'll lean with the history of West Virginia not playing well on the big stage, as evidenced just this past Saturday against Iowa State. I could really make an argument for the Mountaineers here, but the Wildcats getting the win on the road at Colorado gives them a huge confidence boost coming into Morgantown. WVU will press and try to do too much which will cause them to turnover the ball, miss tackles, and so forth.

K-State has been really good against the run this season and if they're able to limit West Virginia's ground game, I don't see how the Mountaineers can hang in this one. Aside from the Kansas game, Garrett Greene has not been effective as a passer when playing from behind and if you don't believe me all you have to do is look at WVU's three losses. And yes, I'm well aware the Wildcats have not defended the pass that well.

Over/Under: 54.5

4-star play on the under: We had a strong play on the under last week and it was never a sweat. I'm going back to it again this week expecting a similar style game where possessions will be limited. Maybe not 17 total possessions like last week, but this isn't going to be a back-and-forth type of affair.

The Mountaineers never really got the rushing attack going last week and although they'll be facing a stingy K-State front seven, they will be stubborn about running the ball. They need to get back on track. That's their identity. Running the ball not only lets WVU get into its offense, but it also keeps that vulnerable defensive unit off the field.

Record this season:

ATS: 3-3 (50%)
O/U: 4-2 (66%)
Overall: 7-5 (58%)

Odds Disclaimer

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