Spread & Over/Under Predictions for WVU vs. Penn State

The money is coming in on West Virginia, but can they cover a shorter number?

Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Penn State Nittany Lions may have pulled away in last year's game against West Virginia winning 38-15, but it was a pretty tightly contested game for most of the night. The Mountaineers failed to make winning plays in the third and fourth quarter which ultimately cost them a chance to do the unthinkable in Happy Valley.

How will things go between the two this time around in Morgantown? We'll get into the score predictions on Thursday, but I do have some thoughts in terms of the spread and total for this one. The listed odds can be found on SI Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: Penn State -8.5

3 star play on West Virginia (+8.5): I would have this as a four-star, but the fact that a late, last-second score can happen and make it a two-score game prevents the Mountaineers from covering. As we saw a year ago, if given the opportunity, James Franklin will score as long as there is time on the clock.

All of that being said, I'm starting to get the feeling that West Virginia is going to put a good scare into Penn State. Now, I don't know if they'll do enough to be able to win the game, but this isn't going to be the walk in the park most Nittany Lions fans expect it to be.

West Virginia's offense returns nearly everyone aside from Zach Frazier and Doug Nester and that unit really found its groove late in the year. As long as they don't gift a couple of turnovers to Penn State or just come out absolutely flat, I see this being a one-score game from start to finish, so I'm taking the points.

Over/Under: 51.5

2 star play on the under: As I mentioned above, I won't share my score prediction just yet, but the score I came up with totals up to 50 points. So obviously, I'm not in love with the current mark but that's what makes these sportsbooks so tough to beat. They know their stuff, even in today's crazy world of college football where every team has a bevy of newcomers thanks to the portal.

The main reason I lean to the under is because both teams are going to want to establish the rushing attack and in West Virginia's case, they will want to chew clock and shrink the game. Penn State has a lot of unknowns heading into the season with its receiving corps and a year ago, Drew Allar dinked and dunked his way down the field week after week. Penn State's offense isn't designed to strike fast which should help avoid getting into a back-and-forth kind of afternoon. I see this game being played in the 20s.

Odds Disclaimer

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