Spread & Over/Under Predictions for WVU vs. UCF

West Virginia will surprisingly be in the underdog role this week against a sub-.500 team.

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This Saturday, West Virginia and UCF will meet for the final game played at Milan Puskar Stadium this season. Both teams enter this matchup with disappointing records but are still in play to become bowl-eligible.

Here are my picks for this week's WVU game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings (Strength of prediction):

1 Star - Not very confident
2 Star - A little confident
3 Star - Fairly confident
4 Star - Very confident
5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread: UCF -2.5

4-star play on West Virginia (+2.5): The Mountaineers have not played well at home all season, and you would think that following a loss that eliminated them from Big 12 contention this would be a flat spot. But if you've paid close attention to the opponents and the results of situations like this in previous year under Neal Brown, this is the game he typically wins.

But I'm not making a play on West Virginia because of that alone; I really like the matchup, too. UCF is going to be stubborn when it comes to running the football, and the Mountaineers have quietly been one of the better run defenses in the Big 12 this season. The Knights have been playing a couple of quarterbacks recently which can be problematic for a defense, but more often than not it hinders the offense running a two-QB system.

The final piece of this is that it will be Senior Day. Games like this are always filled with emotions, and sometimes, they can cause too much of a distraction. This team has not handled these situations well all year, but they'll find a way this Saturday.

Over/Under: 63.5

1-star play on the over: This seems like a high number for two teams that want to run the ball a combined 90 times, but can you really even consider the under right now with the way this West Virginia defense has played? If they bow up and play a stingy game, good on them. But there's no way I can put any confidence into that happening.

Points will be scored in this game, just like last year's matchup when the Mountaineers won in Orlando, 41-28. In their last four Big 12 games, the Knights have averaged 36.5 points per game. WVU's defense has allowed an average of 47 points in their last two games played at home.

Again, it's a high number, but the over is the only thing to consider here.

Record this season:

ATS: 7-3 (70%)
O/U: 5-5 (50%)
Overall: 12-8 (60%)

Odds Disclaimer

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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