What Future WVU Football Schedules Could Look Like
West Virginia's non-conference football schedule is filled out through the 2027 season, so although new athletic director Wren Baker has a different philosophy on scheduling than Shane Lyons, he won't be able to tweak it to his liking unless he backs out of previously scheduled matchups which would be an expensive decision.
Last week, Baker told Three Guys Before the Game that he will do his best in future years to schedule a competitive non-conference slate but one that gives WVU a chance to be successful also.
"Almost every program that has ascended from whether it's back of the pack or middle of the pack to the upper echelon has done so with being very careful with picking and choosing the games they schedule that allow them to have success and build some momentum but they're also challenging at times. So, when you're in a league as good as the Big 12 from top to bottom and you have nine conference games, I think that you have to have a Group of Five opponent in those three non-conference opportunities.
"So, I would probably do Power Five, a Group of Five, and/or another Group of Five or FCS. The difference is the FCS allows you to always ensure that you're going to have seven and sometimes eight home games. Whereas those Group of Five teams, occasionally you can buy them but they're really expensive. So you're looking at two for one and the math becomes problematic. If you're on a year where you have five road conference games and then you have a road Power Five non-conference game, it puts you in a bind. In my mind, having the two Power Five non-conference opponents coupled with the nine conference games makes it very, very difficult. If I could change that in one magic wand wave, I would.
"I think moving forward, we're going to always look at probably a model that allows us to have a really good chance to come out of non-conference at a minimum of 2-1 and maybe even 3-0."
Wren is right. No one in the SEC or Big Ten consistently plays 11 Power Five games per season. Heck some of those schools play two FCS opponents or may not have a single Power Five opponent on the docket in non-conference play.
So, what could future WVU schedules look like?
If we go by the FCS/G5/P5 or G5/G5/P5 model, I would expect Pitt, Virginia Tech, and Maryland to be involved in some sort of rotation. I don't believe we'll see another schedule where two of those programs are in the same year unless the Big 12 reduces conference play to eight games.
There will be a lot of two-for-one agreements with Group of Five schools, similar to what they have already set up with Ohio and East Carolina. Neutral site games will become a rarity (thank God) not only for WVU but around the country. Schools want to play in their own stadium and home-and-homes with other Power Five opponents are more valuable, in my opinion.
West Virginia hasn't had seven home games in a season since 2016, which also happens to be the last time the Mountaineers collected 10 wins. I imagine the goal for Wren will be to consistently have seven home games and occasionally eight, depending on how the conference schedule falls in certain years.
Trying to create a schedule is a pain in the you know what, so I'll leave that for Baker but I do have some suggestions for the WVU AD.
Power Five schools that WVU should consider scheduling (aside from Pitt, VT, Maryland)
Boston College, Kentucky, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia.
Group of Five schools should consider scheduling
Appalachian State, Army, Bowling Green, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, James Madison, Liberty, Marshall, Old Dominion, South Florida, Temple, Toledo.
FCS schools should consider scheduling
Chattanooga, Elon, Furman, Richmond, Villanova, Wofford, Youngstown State.
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