What the ESPN FPI Says About WVU's Chances Against Baylor

Is West Virginia a home underdog?

West Virginia is 5-0 all-time against the Baylor Bears when playing in Morgantown and that's just what the doctor ordered for a team that can't afford to fall to 0-3 in Big 12 Conference play. 

Although the Mountaineers have had a lot of success against the Bears within the confines of Milan Puskar Stadium, this won't be a walk in the park. Baylor comes into the matchup with the second-best defense in the league, allowing 320 yards per game and just 96.8 yards per game on the ground.

With C.J. Donaldson ruled out for this week's game, that's going to make it even more challenging to run the football against what is a stout run defense. WVU will turn to Tony Mathis Jr. and Justin Johnson Jr., each of whom has shown that they are capable of making big plays.

Defensively, the Mountaineers have a lot to figure out, especially in the back end. Fortunately for defensive coordinator Jordan Lesley, the Bears are averaging just 25.3 points this season against Power Five opponents. This could be a great opportunity for the secondary to get right and get back on track.

According to the ESPN FPI, Baylor has a 60.1% chance to earn their first win over the Mountaineers in Morgantown while West Virginia has a 39.9% chance to get back to .500.

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